3M Open Golf Preview, Odds Guide, Predictions & Betting Picks 2021: Hot Grillo

Emiliano GrilloThe third edition of the 3M Open golf starts on Thursday at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. It’s always tough to follow a major but there’s a stronger field than expected following the drama of the Open Championship last week.

The notable absentees for this 2021 3M Open include those traveling to Tokyo for the Olympics but otherwise we have some of the world’s best golfers in attendance.

Last week over in the UK we landed two top ten picks as Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler delivered. It was a little frustrating to watch Morikawa lift the Claret Jug but we did land at +725 overall based on four picks so let’s see if we can keep those profits going as we cross back over the Atlantic with our 3M predictions for this preview.

Dustin Johnson was one of the first players to commit to this year’s 3M Open and early markets immediately listed him as the clear favorite. DJ is currently available at best industry odds of 15/2 and his sluggish form is slightly improving.

A tie for eighth at the Open on Sunday, despite a poor last round of 73, was his best finish in five months and his fourth top 25 return in succession.

Behind Johnson in the outright markets at a general 12/1 is the man who led the Open for the first three rounds. Louis Oosthuizen failed to capitalize after creating a new tournament record at the halfway point and the South African now has to lift himself following that disappointment. Oosthuizen still leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting and it could come down to a battle with the flatstick at TPC Twin Cities.

Tony Finau is also listed at 12/1 in places and he has the best record on this course so far with a tie for 23rd and a tie for 3rd last time out.

Patrick Reed was one of the more recent additions to the 3M Open Field for 2021 and he heads up the chasers at best odds of 18/1. Form is the simple concern here and Reed doesn’t even make it into the Power Rankings despite the relatively modest field.

As a former 3M Open Champion, Matthew Wolff should attract more interest at a general 28/1. Wolff won the inaugural edition of this tournament in 2019 and he followed that success with a tie for 12th a year later. However, this remains his only victory on Tour to date.

Elsewhere, Cameron Tringale, Robert McIntyre, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson can also be found at 28/1 in places. There seems to be some interest in Bubba who is starting to show some consistency while left hander McIntyre is close to earning his temporary card after some good displays in the US.

Defending 3M Open Champion Michael Thompson is included in the outside pack but he is way out at a top price of 100/1. This was his second win on Tour following victory at the Honda Classic in 2013 and it really serves to highlight that a rank outsider can come through and deliver at exceptional odds.

A more modest outside option is Emiliano Grillo at 40/1 while Keegan Bradley and Cameron Davis can also be found at that same price. Grillo looks particularly interesting: He tied for third on his 3M Open debut last year and he ranks highly in potentially key stats including Greens in Regulation and Par 4 Scoring.

Other names to consider in this section include Rickie Fowler at 50/1, Charles Schwartzel at 50/1, Ryan Moore at 66/1, Gary Woodland at 66/1 and Luke List at 66/1.

Our Preview’s 3M Open Golf Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict

The first two editions of the 3M Open have featured low scoring and tight finishes. Matthew Wolff claimed a breakthrough victory in 2019, claiming the title by a single stroke from Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa. A year later, Michael Thompson edged out Adam Long by two shots.

The tournament has been held at TPC Twin Cities since its inception on a par 71 course which has some respectable distance at 7,431 yards. Established in 2000, it previously played host to the 3M Championship which was an event on the senior Tour. Since that time, Twin Cities has been lengthened and there is some help for the distance hitter in places.

Two years doesn’t give us a great deal to work on in terms of trends but accuracy and putting have been pivotal in those opening editions. Last year’s champion Michael Thompson led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting while also ranking strongly in greens hit and scrambling.

Based on relevant stats, the name that keeps speaking to us is that of Emiliano Grillo. We mentioned earlier in this 3M preview that he is strong right now in GIR and Par 4 Scoring while he led the Open in putts per GIR as he finished in a tie for 12th.

Grillo for the win is the tip and the three top 10 finish picks are looking to build on our profitable run:

  • Back Emiliano Grillo to win @ +4000 with Bovada and Intertops.
  • Top 10 Finish Picks (odds from BetOnline): Grillo (+300), Matthew Wolff (+300), Gary Woodland (+550) & Charl Schwartzel (+550).