The San Francisco 49ers are traveling across the country to take on the lowly New York Jets today (1pm ET Sunday live on Fox). Both teams are coming off a week one loss and looking to get into the win column.
This should be a relatively boring and low scoring game but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some money from the premier sportsbooks with our predictions. One trend that leans to the home dog is from one of those betting sites that states: “From 2003 to 2018, west coast teams have gone 80-133 (37.6%) straight up when playing on the east coast. That is a 37.6% win percentage.”
Injuries & their replacements
Neither team is in a great spot one week into the new season and they are dealing with a plethora of injuries to key starters. They are both especially injured on the offensive side of the ball.
San Francisco will be without star tight end George Kittle due to a knee injury. Last season Kittle lead the Niners in receptions, receiving yards and was tied for first in touchdown receptions. He also is a massive piece in the run game due to his blocking prowess. He is the most important weapon on the offense, which struggled a bit last week against Arizona.
They are also without three wide receivers including Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd, and Richie James. Samuel was second on the team in both receptions and receiving yards. They will be relying on rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Taylor, and Kendrick Bourne on the outside and tight end Jordan Reed over the middle.
That stable of weapons doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the offense. The spot they are healthiest is in the backfield with Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Tevin Coleman all ready to go. They are also healthy and solid up front on the offensive line. All those factors should allow them to control the time of possession and win the game on the ground. The Niners will also be without starting corners Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett.
The Jets are not in a better spot with several injuries on offense as well. They will be without starting wide receiver Jamison Crowder, first round receiver Denzel Mims, and starting running back Le’Veon Bell. Last year Crowder lead the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He is their best offensive weapon and a favorite target of quarterback Sam Darnold. Last week Crowder once again lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns with seven receptions, 115 yards, and one touchdown.
How will the Jets move the ball in the air without their best target? They will be starting 37-year-old Frank Gore at running back this week. Expect them to keep the ball on the ground with Gore in an attempt to hang around in a close game.
Early San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets Betting Action
The early sharp money is coming in on the Jets as 7pt home dogs and big money is being placed on the under which is sitting at 41.5 total points. It is not surprising that the public is siding with last year’s NFC Champions despite being 7pt road favorites.
As of Saturday afternoon the Niners were receiving 78% of bets and 75% of money. Bettors are also loving the under which makes sense with all of the injuries on the offensive side of the ball. A hefty 67% of bets and a massive 98% of money was on the under. This is fairly surprising as the public tends to bet overs.
Our Preview’s San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets Predictions & Betting Picks Verdict
I would lean to the Jets getting seven at home but also can’t trust Darnold with the offensive injuries and the defense after trading away their best player Jamal Adams in the offseason. That just feels like a little too many points to lay with the Niners despite it being a must-win game. They cannot afford to lose to the lowly Jets and drop to 0-2.
I think the pressure of needing a win will make Kyle Shanahan call a much more conservative game and lean on his healthiest units, the offensive line and running backs. Expect the Niners dominant front seven to cause havoc and limit the Jets offense.
The Jets were only able to muster 17 points (granted against a strong Bills defense) with their best weapon, Crowder, on the field. Joey Bosa should have a field day and cause a headache for the Jets’ Darnold. Linebackers Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner should also help contain the Jets and limit their scoring.
So, for USAbetting’s San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets predictions, I will be on the under 41.5 total points. This is one of my favorite bets of the weekend as both teams should look to control the game on the ground and scoring will be at a premium. I would play this all the way down to 38. I see a 17-10 San Francisco victory and an easy under.
I am also playing the Jets team total under 19.5. I think the Jets’ ceiling is 17 points at most but that the Niners should hold them to even less. Last season the Jets offense only averaged 17.2 points per game and that was arguably with a better team than they will be fielding today.
So, in summary, these are my Niners vs Jets betting picks:
- Go under 41.5 total points @ best odds of -110 with BetOnline or Intertops.
- Go under 19.5pts for the Jets total @ -180 with Bovada.
Alex Uplinger is a sports betting analyst, writer, podcast producer and an expert on NFL and college basketball. As well as his football previews for USA Betting, Alex produces and co-hosts an NFL show for Full Slate and a sports betting podcast on the Blue Wire Network.