The third round of England’s FA Cup begins this weekend and Saturday sees this all-Premier League tie go off at the Emirates. On paper, Arsenal and Newcastle United look to be evenly balanced with just four points separating the two teams in the Premier League table (12.30pm ET Saturday). Newcastle have a game in hand and can close that gap but does that mean that we’ll have a tight game in this FA Cup fixture?
The moneyline markets are coming down heavily on the side of the host team, Arsenal, so let’s see if we can find some value here and in the props with our preview and ultimate predictions with picks.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Moneyline Odds
Arsenal lead the straight result betting by some margin and you can pick up the Gunners at around the -200 mark. Victory for Newcastle is on offer at +400 in places while the draw can be claimed at an average of +335. Those are the odds in 90 minutes and exclude any potential extra time.
We’ve mentioned that there is a fine margin between these two teams in terms of points and league standings so those numbers may come as something of a surprise. The question of starting line ups may also have a bearing on the final outcome with Arsenal the more likely to rest some of their key players.
Having taken all of that into account, USA Betting is edging towards the draw in normal time but before we commit, let’s firstly take a look at the players who may decide the destiny of the tie.
Prop Bet Markets
Arsenal players dominate the early prices in the top goalscorer betting with Alexandre Lacazette listed as a +300 (3/1) favorite to open the scoring. Just behind in this particular market are Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Eddie Nketiah who are both listed at +400 (4/1) in places.
The Gunners have plenty of options in this market but Nketiah is a player who stands out for us. He is the reserve striker and is, therefore, more likely to start the game in a changed line up. While his overall striking record is modest, Nketiah has an impressive return of five goals in ten domestic cup matches for Arsenal.
From a Newcastle United perspective, the man to watch in the first goalscorer market is Callum Wilson who is out at an industry best of +700 (7/1). The former Bournemouth attacker has maintained a respectable strike ratio since joining the Magpies last summer and has eight goals from his first 14 games.
‘Both teams to score’ (BTTS) is one of our more regular side bets and, if it lands during 90 minutes, bettors can currently get a general -130. That may seem short but the indicators are good for this one: Free scoring Arsenal have found the net 13 times in their last five games and, while Newcastle’s returns are more modest, BTTS appears a strong option this week.
Scoring stats also suggest that there may be some value in the total goals betting. Staking over the 2.5 combined line isn’t exactly tempting with a current industry best of -167. However, a push to over 3.5 is potentially more lucrative with a current industry high of +155.
For correct score betting, you may not agree with our suggestion of a draw but this game should still be tight. A 2-1 win for Arsenal can be claimed at a general +700 while the same outcome in favor of Newcastle can be picked up at an average of +1600. Our preference here would be for the 2-2 draw which is available at a top industry price of +1700.
Our Betting Preview’s Arsenal vs Newcastle FA Cup Match Predictions & Picks Verdict
Like all FA Cup games involving top flight sides, much could depend on the comparative strength of the two starting XIs. Premier League teams in particular don’t always take the competition too seriously, with the EPL proving to be a priority for most.
That could make the game even tighter and we’re definitely edging towards the draw on 90 minutes. Overtime and penalties may well be needed in order to separate two teams who look so evenly matched. The draw is, therefore, our first pick of the match but what about the prop markets?
This preview has mentioned the appeal of Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah in the goalscorer betting so we’ll confirm this as well. If he doesn’t start the game as the lone striker, Coach Arteta has the option to play him with Lacazette as part of a dual strike force. Of course, there is the possibility that he will start on the bench so we will play a little safer and take Nketiah for a goal at any time in 90 minutes.
Finally, for those who want less exposure, both teams to score looks good at short odds based on the respective scoring stats. We expect it to be a tight contest but even if this is as one-sided as the betting lines suggest, the potential for value remains among the prop bets. These are our picks and AFC vs NUFC predictions:
- Bet the draw @ +345 with Bovada.
- Take Eddie Nketiah to score at any time in 90 minutes @ +110 with Intertops.
- Consider both teams to score @ best odds of -125 with Intertops.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.