Golf Betting Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Guide, Predictions & Picks

Bryson Dechambeau: API PredictionsThere was plenty of drama at the weekend as the Honda Classic went right down the wire. At one point there was the prospect of a multiple playoff between at least six players before Keith Mitchell edged it by one stroke.

Our tip for the win, Brooks Koepka, gave us a good run for our money as he came in tied for second with Rickie Fowler so let’s see if we can go one better at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

As the name suggests, this is one of just five tournaments on the PGA Tour where participation is by invitation only. It is a restricted field, therefore, but many of the world’s best are lining up in Florida and among them is our defending champion Rory McIlroy (+650 with Bovada or Intertops).

Rory’s form had been mixed in 2018 but the highlight of his year came with victory at Bay Hill twelve months ago when he came home ahead of Bryson Dechambeau by three shots.

McIlroy was just a few points ahead of Tiger Woods on Monday, but with the eight-time champion having withdrawn through injury, the Northern Irishman is quite a strong favorite with our trusted American odds makers in the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting.

Justin Rose (+1100) returns to action this week and the recent World Number One is second favorite for the API. The Englishman was a runner up to Tiger in 2013 and has two wins in his last five starts but will that extended break from the course count against him?

Brooks Koepka (also +1100) has decent form to carry over from last week. His record at Bay Hill is a poor one however and Brooks has made the cut just once in three outings. Just behind Koepka is Rickie Fowler (+1200) – the other man to tie for second at the Honda Classic – and then we come to 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational Champion Jason Day (also +1200).

Of those two, Fowler has the better overall record at Bay Hill and six top 10 finishes in nine starts suggest he is ready to lift a trophy once again.

Also worth considering is last year’s runner up Bryson Dechambeau (+1400) whose second place behind McIlroy was the catalyst for a bright year.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) and Marc Leishman (also 25/1) head the outside bets and there will be particular interest in Leishman who claimed the API in 2017. That victory was one of three top 10 finishes for the Australian in this tournament and form hints at another single digit finish at the weekend.

Phil Mickelson (+4000) is a former winner of this event. That shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to anyone but his solitary victory came way back in 1997. Lefty’s win price is way down the list as a result but that recent trophy at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am suggests he could be good value.

Two men who are way down the list of outsiders are recent Tour winners Keith Mitchell (100/1) and JB Holmes (80/1) while we can also make a case for Bubba Watson (50/1), Patrick Reed (40/1), Brandt Snedeker (100/1) and others. It’s a shortened field but it remains a tough one so what is it going to take to win?

Our API Preview’s Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Conclusion

Arnold Palmer’s very own Bay Hill Club and Lodge continues to host a tournament that was first held in 1966. The venue is a par 72 at a shade over 7,400 yards so there could be some advantages for the distance hitters in places. In a recent revamp, holes have been lengthened but rough has been allowed to thrive making accuracy equally desirable across the four days.

Tiger has those eight wins but otherwise multiple champions are rare and no-one else has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational more than twice.

Looking at all the stats the name we keep coming back to is Bryson Dechambeau. In finishing second behind McIlroy last year, Bryson led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Co-Led for par 5 scoring. Ultimately, Rory outdid him with the putter so an improvement with the flatstick may be all that is needed to triumph. Dechambeau is currently third in par 5 scoring this season so there is another key stat on his side.

So for our API predictions, this golf preview likes Dechambeau for the win and you could also add Brandt Snedeker to the list of top 10 picks. Hopefully the following picks are enough to seal an overall profit at Bay Hill this week:

  • Take Bryson Dechambeau to win @ +1600 with Intertops (14/1 with Bovada).
  • Add in Marc Leishman (+250), Phil Mickelson (+350) and JB Holmes (+650) for top 10 finishes and those betting odds are available with both Bovada and Intertops.