Austin FC vs New York Red Bulls Preview, Picks, Betting Predictions: Home Win Hard To Oppose

Sebastian DriussiAustin FC’s pursuit of Western Conference dominance continues on Sunday (8pm ET), as they host Eastern Conference side the New York Red Bulls, who are looking to make it to the top in their own division. Will the hosts have it all their own way at Q2 Stadium? Or can the visitors leave their mark?

The Austin FC boys arrive at this junction having been in almost flawless form of late. They were halted slightly last time out, tying 1-1 on the road at Dallas, but that result came after four wins on the bounce, three of which came away from the comforts of home. Sunday’s hosts have now avoided defeat in each of their last seven Major League Soccer fixtures, five of which they’ve emerged victorious from. That is a run of form that has propelled them to a lofty second position, just a point behind league leaders LAFC.

Since they were downed by their city rivals last time out, the Red Bulls won’t come into this fixture in the same buoyant mood as the hosts, while they are now without a win in two. Fortunately, the visitors remain in a promising position in the east, with two teams above them in the standings. Though if they do not regain form soon, they’re likely to drop back into the pack and then their participation in the post-season will seem far less secure.

Hard to beat at home

Somewhat strangely given that they’re unbeaten in seven games, the hosts do not come here with a fantastic recent record at home. They won when last in action at Q2 Stadium, beating the Houston Dynamo by three goals to one, though that was their first home victory in four games, drawing two and losing one of the other three.

Fortunately, overall, the men in green and black have made life difficult for teams at the Texas venue. Of the nine fixtures that have taken place on home soil, Josh Wolff’s men have won five, tied three and lost just one, scoring an encouraging total of 22 goals, conceding only eight in the process. They are among the highest home scorers in the division, with only LAFC scoring more home goals in the west, but it is what they’ve produced defensively that is perhaps most impressive. Conceding less than a single goal on average is strong by general MLS standards, whilst their average expected goal difference of +0.60 shows us that they’ve made a great habit of consistently creating more than their opponents.

Kings of the eastern away day

In the Eastern Conference, nobody has done playing on the road better than the Red Bulls this season. Sunday’s visitors have picked up an impressive 20 points away from home, which is more than any other Eastern Conference side, winning six, tying two and losing only three of their traveling fixtures.

They’ve also scored a very solid 16 goals, and have conceded 11, which works out at just one per game. Again, by MLS standards, that’s very good. In fact, only two teams across both conferences have conceded fewer road goals this season, so let’s face it, the men in red are no pushovers.

However, in recent times, the goals have dried up for RBNY away from home. Yes, they’ve scored in each of their last two away games, but they’ve only scored once in each of those, while they went three road games without scoring prior to that. So Gerhard Struber’s men have notched a rather paltry total of just two goals in their last five road fixtures, which is a bit worrying, especially since they’ve conceded seven goals during that time.

Austin FC vs RBNY: How to bet this fixture?

The Red Bulls will undoubtedly have market supporters ahead of this fixture, after all, they do have a very good away record in terms of points accumulated, though when this preview scratches beneath the surface and exposes some relatively poor recent traveling efforts, it’s quite hard to make a case for them against an Austin side that has been in great form.

While the visitors have scored only two goals in their last five on the road, producing not the best average of 0.94 expected goals, the Austin boys have scored ten goals in their last five at home, creating a pleasing average of 1.68 xG. These numbers are very hard to ignore, and it is this extra offensive quality that can make the difference at Q2 Stadium on Sunday evening.

Sebastián to score

There’s been several impressive attacking performers for Austin this season, with the likes of Maximiliano Urruti and Diego Fagúndez producing the goods on a regular basis. There can be no denying that Sebastián Driussi has been the main man, and frankly, given his recent efforts, he is too big in the betting at +185 to score.

The Argentine has already notched 11 MLS goals this term, while he has produced five assists too, scoring in three of Austin’s last six. Of the regular starters, he’s also number one in terms of goals per 90 minutes, averaging an eye-catching 0.55, as well as xG per 90 minutes, averaging 0.42. With his team in great form, the 26-year-old is worth supporting with the major United States’ sportsbooks to notch for a 12th time this campaign. These are our betting picks and Austin FC vs RBNY predictions for this MLS game preview:

  • Austin FC to win on the moneyline @ +130 with Bovada or BetOnline.
  • Sebastián Driussi to score at any time @ +185 with EveryGame. It is +180 with Bovada.