A red-hot Buffalo Bills team travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos for a special Saturday afternoon game (4.30pm ET; TV: Live on FOX).
The Buffalo Bills are one of the hottest teams in football right now and have won six of their last seven games. They would be on a seven-game winning streak if it weren’t for a last second Hail Mary loss to the Arizona Cardinals. With their dominant win over the one-loss Pittsburgh Steelers they are now sitting at 10-3 and in first place in the AFC East. They are two games ahead of the Miami Dolphins and look poised to win their first divisional title since 1995.
There are diehard Bills fans who have never seen their favorite team win a division in their lifetime. The Patriots had their 11-year streak of winning the division snapped when the Bills won on Sunday. Look for the Bills to maintain their feverish energy this week to keep the Dolphins in the rearview within the division.
The Broncos are coming off a relatively impressive win as three-point road underdogs against the Carolina Panthers. The Broncos won behind a strong showing by quarterback Drew Lock who had 280 yards passing, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. This was easily his best game of the season and only his third this year without an interception. The 32-27 victory was their highest scoring output by a large margin.
Before last week they had only scored 21 or more points in four of their 12 games. They rank 29th in the NFL in average points per game with a lowly 19.8 on the season and they have been even worse as of recent. Over their last three games they have averaged 17.0 points per game, which is tied for 5th worst during that stretch. While the Broncos have not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, they are currently sitting three games back from the Dolphins in the Wild Card with three games to play. Every remaining game is a must-win, but I don’t think the Broncos are nearly good enough to win out against the Bills, Raiders and Chargers. How motivated will they be against a strong Bills team? Hopefully our final picks and Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos predictions for this USAbetting preview can answer that question successfully.
Bills Defense Returning to 2019 Form?
The Bills had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season. They were 2nd in the league in average points allowed only giving up 16.5 points per game and 4th in average passing yards allowed per game (196.6). They were one of only five teams last season to allow less than 200 yards through the air on average. The defense has dropped off significantly this season and gives up on average 24.7 points per game, but they have been drastically better over their last three games. They were able to limit the Steelers to only 15 points last week. In their last three games they have given up 18.7 points per game on average, which is much improved compared to their early season form. They had an interception against the Steelers that went for a touchdown before halftime that turned the tide in their favor. Buffalo’s defense ranks 4th in the NFL in average takeaways per game with 1.6 on the season.
I think the Bills will be able to hold this mediocre Broncos’ offense under 14 points and create several turnovers. This is an offense that has difficulties holding onto the ball. Quarterback Drew Lock has been a turnover machine in his first full season as the starter. The Broncos rank last in the league in interceptions thrown per game with 1.6 on average. Drew Lock is second in the NFL in most interceptions thrown with 13. Lock also has four fumbles on the year, but none have been lost thus far.
Our Preview’s Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Predictions & Betting Picks Conclusion
Initially we were looking at the Bills simply due to the ineptitude of Drew Lock and the Denver offense, but the line is a bit high for my liking. The Bills are currently around -6pts on the spread with the foremost USA-friendly sportsbooks.
Instead we are going to look to the total points betting line for a winner. We like this game to go under the 50pts total, which feels a bit too high.
We don’t see how the Broncos’ offense will be able to score nearly enough to make this go over and their passing defense has been surprisingly strong. They rank 10th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed per game, which should help to slow a strong Bills’ passing attack. Both of these defenses can be exploited on the ground. Buffalo ranks 20th and Denver ranks 27th in average rushing yards allowed per game. I think each coach will try to exploit this weakness, which will help run the clock and keep this game under. I see this as a fairly comfortable victory for the Bills, but a lower scoring game. Let’s call it a 23-13 win for Buffalo. However the betting pick for these Bills vs Broncos predictions is:
Alex Uplinger is a sports betting analyst, writer, podcast producer and an expert on NFL and college basketball. As well as his football previews for USA Betting, Alex produces and co-hosts an NFL show for Full Slate and a sports betting podcast on the Blue Wire Network.