The BMW Championship is one of the more recent additions to the PGA Tour but it has quickly become a central part of the season. As part of the FedEx playoff series, the action is starting to get intense and there have been some thrilling finishes over the years.
Last time out at The Northern Trust, the result was far from close but it was a profitable four days for us. For the second time since golf returned, Dustin Johnson converted to come home at odds of +2000 (20/1). Webb Simpson chipped in with a winning top 10 finish so let’s see if we can build on that excellent bankroll boost as we head to the Olympia Fields Country Club in Illinois.
Part of our reasoning behind backing Johnson lay in his pricing. At +2000, we felt that this was exceptional value and we suspected that he wouldn’t be out that high for too long. Our suspicions were correct as DJ leads the outrights for the BMW Championships 2020 at a general 9/1 with the U.S sportsbooks.
He has now secured two wins and a tie for second in his last six starts and is an obvious market leader this week.
A fraction behind Johnson at 10/1 is Jon Rahm who has just lost his number one ranking for the second time in a few short weeks. A tie for sixth on Sunday wasn’t enough to stay at the top but it shows that the Spaniard is starting to find some consistency and that could pay off.
Behind the top two there is a gap to Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas who can both be claimed at a best of 15/1 in places. Thomas is the defending champion this week and relevant facts such as this can sometimes be overlooked when others are weighing up the FedEx race. Our only concern is to pick a winner on Sunday and JT has the form and record in this event to deliver.
DeChambeau has faded a touch in the last month but won the US Amateur Championship here in 2015.
Also in this group in the BMW Championship betting are Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger. Of the four, Simpson’s best price of 21/1 may offer the value now that Dustin Johnson’s odds have halved in a week. The recent FedEx Cup leader has two top six finishes in his last two starts and is consistent enough for another top 10 finish return at the very least.
Daniel Berger and the most recent Major winner Collin Morikawa follow while there is some reported interest in Jason Day who can be picked up at around 30/1. Despite a poor week at The Northern Trust, the Australian is in good touch with four straight top 10 finishes including a tie for fourth at the PGA Championship.
There are just 70 of the best performing golfers across the season in this week’s field so it is less likely that a long-odds winner will come through. At the very end of the outright win betting market, Carlos Ortiz comes in at around 400/1 and, while that doesn’t interest us for our BMW Championship predictions, there are some shorter options that could be some value picks.
Scottie Scheffler couldn’t quite build on the momentum from Friday’s historic round of 59 and, while he lurks at 35/1, two top fours in his last two starts suggest he is a contender for top 10 finish markets at the very least.
Elsewhere, Tiger Woods is only just behind Scheffler, as is Patrick Reed while Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff and Paul Casey will all attract interest. Finau at 40/1 in places could be suited to this course with benefits for the power hitters at times.
Our Preview’s BMW Championship Predictions & Picks with Course & Betting Trends Verdict
The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club hosts the 2020 BMW Championship and it provides a lengthy par 70 at 7,366 yards. It is a first-time venue for this event while it hosted the 2015 US Amateur Championship and the 2003 US Open. Only a handful of players will have any prior knowledge of the course and that could open things up.
It has just two par 5s but the first hole is a monster at 626 yards and is one of the longest on Tour. Four inch, bluegrass rough can be punishing so that level of accuracy is needed to balance while fair sized greens at 12.5 on the Stimp could bring it all down to a putting competition.
Note that because we are down to 36 players there is no 36-hole cut this week and, in theory, everyone will remain in contention to the very end. It also means that the top 10 finish odds with the bookies may be much shorter but we have included three of these options for you to consider.
As for the outright winner, there is a case to keep backing Dustin Johnson but this preview switching to the defending champion Justin Thomas. He is in great touch and, his number one ranking in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, could be telling this week.
So these are our BMW Championship predictions:
- Justin Thomas to win at +1300 (13/1) with Bookmaker. Next best is +1200 (12/1) with Bovada, Intertops and BetOnline.
- Take JT (-120), Webb Simpson (+135), Scottie Scheffler (+225) and Paul Casey (+300) for top 10 finishes and all those odds are with Bovada.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.