The FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week with the PGA Tour heading to Owing Mills, Maryland for the 2021 edition of the BMW Championship. With the Northern Trust ending a day late on Monday night, the final field of 70 has just been confirmed and it is another strong bunch heading into Thursday’s tee time.
Last week’s competition produced yet another playoff finish with Tony Finau edging out Australia’s Cameron Smith in a tournament that seemed like it would never end. Playoffs have been a trend over recent weeks and there could be another tight finish in store here. Let’s see how our BMW Championship predictions and golf picks conclude at the end of this tournament preview.
The delayed finish to the Northern Trust means that the markets are slower than usual in opening up. Defending champion Jon Rahm closed out the BMW Championship in a playoff over Dustin Johnson last year and he leads the way.
The Spaniard is listed at 7/1 and he should have closed out victory in the Northern Trust before a late slump. Some are blaming his multiple positive Covid tests but three straight top three finishes suggests Rahm has the form to fight the fatigue.
Behind the market leader is Xander Schauffele at 16/1. The new Olympic Gold Medalist has yet to replicate his Tokyo form on the PGA Tour but a second round 62 at the Northern Trust suggests he can be a contender if he can find some consistency.
A clutch of golfers can all be found at 20/1 with Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas all available at that figure. Of those names, Thomas has the best immediate form with a tie for fourth on Sunday. He is also a former champion, having claimed this tournament by three strokes back in 2019.
Johnson is a two-time winner of the BMW Championship with wins in 2010 and 2016. We are at a new venue this year but this could be important as it shows a winning mentality at this late, crucial stage of the season.
Moving through the chasers, Cameron Smith will clearly attract some interest after that round of 60 led him to a playoff on Sunday. Smith is quoted at 22/1 followed by Brooks Koepka and Patrick Cantlay at 25/1.
On the fringes of this section, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau are all at 28/1. Finau has the obvious form as the most recent winner on Tour and he and DeChambeau could benefit as two of the power hitters in the field.
The longest odds this week belong to Robert Streb who is at the bottom of the outside bunch at 350/1. We’re unlikely to see any shocks in such a strong field but there could be some value in this section.
Paul Casey remains consistent as he goes deep into the playoffs once again. Casey is listed at 35/1 while Hideki Matsuyama and Webb Simpson could also attract some interest at the same figure.
Other names to look at here include Harris English at 40/1, Sam Burns at 50/1 and 2018 BMW Championship winner Keegan Bradley at 90/1.
Our BMW Championship Preview’s Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Advice
The BMW Championship has a new home for 2021 with the Caves Valley Golf Club taking on hosting duties for the very first time. It’s a par 71 with a relatively average length of just over 7,200 yards. Designed by Tom Fazio, it has held some top tournaments on the senior and LPGA Tours but it is making its debut on the PGA Tour.
Trends are, therefore, going to be hard to identify: We do know that water hazards are the main defense but the fairways are wide and that could keep everyone in the frame until they reach the putting surfaces. Pacy greens could then make this a straight battle with the flatstick.
The BMW Championship began in 2007 as a successor to the Western Open and it was subsequently incorporated as the second leg of the FedEx Playoffs. With just 70 golfers in the field, there is no cut so everyone will remain for all four days.
The name that we keep coming back to is that of Dustin Johnson. Just over a year ago, we capitalized on a bad run of form that eventually saw DJ drift to excellent odds. It’s happening again and it’s just a case of getting him at the right time.
He is too good a player to stay out of the winners’ chair for too long and this course could be good for him as accuracy from the tee is one of his issues right now. The wider fairways will keep Johnson in play and we think this is a good setup for him.
As the fields shorten, the prop bets start to thin out but there should be scope to add a couple more players to the top five finish picks. So these are our BMW Championship predictions and betting picks for this preview:
- Dustin Johnson to win @ +2000 with Bovada and BetOnline.
- Top 5 finish betting tips (with Bovada and BetOnline when available): Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.