With the St Jude Championship in the record books, the FedEx Cup is reaching its climax. Just one more event stands ahead of the season-ending Tour Championship next week. With more players having been cut from the race, just 50 golfers remain as we look forward to the BMW Championship which tees off on Thursday. Who will stay in contention, and who will drop off the pace after four days of action at Olympia Fields, Illinois? This preview, with its predictions and betting picks, aims to work it out.
The outright winner markets are led this week by Rory McIlroy who goes into Thursday at best industry odds of 15/2. Rory was consistent throughout the four days at the St Jude Championship, eventually finishing in a tie for third place. McIlroy is also a former winner of this event, but we have to go back to 2012 to find his victory, when the tournament was held at Crooked Stick.
In second place is Scottie Scheffler who is available at a top price of 8/1. Scottie struggled with his putter last week, and is starting to lose form at just the wrong time.
Behind the favorites, Jon Rahm is at a best of 10/1. Rahm was our pick for the win last week, but he endured a poor four days, finishing in a tie for 37th. The Spaniard was, however, the champion when this tournament was last played at Olympia Fields, so he should come back under the radar.
Patrick Cantlay follows at 12/1. Not only is he the defending BMW Champion, Cantlay is going for a rare three-peat after winning this event in 2021 and 2022. After a mixed season, he may just be peaking at the right time, after tying for the 72-hole lead with Lucas Glover on Sunday.
Moving through this section, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland are both quoted at 18/1, followed by Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood and Collin Morikawa at 25/1. Of those names, Fleetwood and Homa are in the best touch, with both men finishing inside the top 10 last week.
Other golfers to consider from among the chasing pack include Jordan Spieth at 28/1, Hideki Matsuyama and Tyrrell Hatton at 33/1, plus Lucas Glover and Russell Henley at 35/1. Glover will also be one to watch, following his two consecutive wins on Tour, while Henley is consistent, finishing in a tie for sixth on Sunday. Matsuyama should also be considered as he finished in a tie for third when this tournament was last held here in 2020.
The underdogs in the USA betting with the bookies begin with Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim and Sungjae Im who can all be found at best industry odds of 40/1 in places. Fowler was one of the form players coming into these playoffs, while Im is another golfer who tied for sixth at the St Jude.
Next we have Brian Harman, Cameron Young, Jason Day and Tony Finau who are all quoted at 45/1. Finau could benefit from a longer course this week, while all four may pose a threat.
As we have a field of just 50, this isn’t the biggest outsider section, but there are some more names to consider. Others worthy of a mention here include Wyndham Clark at 50/1, Sam Burns at 55/1, Justin Rose at 66/1, Sepp Straka at 80/1, Emiliano Grillo at 80/1, Adam Hadwin at 100/1 and Harris English at 100/1.
Our Preview’s 2023 BMW Championship Predictions & Picks Verdict with Course & Betting Trends
The 2023 BMW Championship returns to the Olympia Field Country Club in Illinois for the first time since 2020. It is a par 70, but it is one of the longest on Tour at around 7,366 yards. Power hitters will gain some advantage at certain holes, but Greens in Regulation and Proximity to the Hole have proved to be key stats at this venue. Scoring averages indicate that this is the second toughest Par 70 course on Tour, so the totals may not be low this week.
Because of the reduced field, there is no cut in place this week. All golfers will remain in contention across the four days, barring any withdrawals. In theory, that means we shouldn’t rule anyone out, but the trend is for low-odds winners with the sportsbooks in this tournament.
Form has also been a key indicator in recent editions and it is rare for anyone to climb the leaderboard after a recent slump. That is a mark of a tough course and it is going to be tricky to pick a winner.
One man who is gaining some momentum is Xander Schauffele. He finished down the field on Sunday in a tie for 24th, but he made a similar return 12 months ago before improving as the playoff series wore on.
Xander has the game for this course and he knows how to pace himself across these playoffs. Schauffele for the win is the main pick: In a smaller field, there may not be too many interesting top 10 options, so we’ve made some top 5 betting picks’ suggestions as we look ahead to Thursday.
- Xander Schauffele to win at best odds of +2200 (22/1) with BetOnline.
- Top 5 Betting Picks (betting odds from BetOnline): Xander Schauffele (+325), Lucas Glover (+600), Collin Morikawa (+425) and Viktor Hovland (+325).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.