It is the penultimate round of the FedEx Playoffs and there is still plenty to play for as the world’s best golfers make their way to the Medinah Country Club this Thursday. Aside from the race to become this season’s overall champion, there is a tournament to win in the shape of the BMW Championship which debuted on Tour in 2007.
Keegan Bradley is the defending champion while Patrick Reed is the most recent winner on Tour after an impressive four days at the Northern Trust. Will either man deliver another profit or is it time for one of the favorites to come through?
Last week’s market saw two men locked at the top of the betting and we have the exact same scenario for the BMW Championship. Most American sportsbooks cannot split Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy at +800 (8/1) with Bovada as the two head the odds.
Neither man has won this event and while they are the in-form golfers, we have not seen too many favorites get over the line outside of the US Majors.
Behind the top two, Jon Rahm (+1000) follows while Justin Thomas (14/1), Justin Rose (16/1) and Dustin Johnson (14/1) are all shown as joint fourth favorites in places. Included in that list are our first former BMW Champions: Rose claimed victory in 2011 while DJ is one of only two multiple winners of this event.
Along with Tiger Woods (40/1), Johnson has won two BMW Championships with the last of these coming in 2016. Both Rose and Johnson have good, relevant stats while Rahm is going under the radar to an extent. We like the Spaniard’s chances, however, and this preview will be coming back to him for our BMW Championship predictions.
Also available in a packed set of chasers are the 25/1 shots Adam Scott, Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed. Reed comes fresh from that fine win on Sunday while Simpson’s tie for 18th follows two runners-up finishes.
Tommy Fleetwood (28/1) heads up the list of outside bets but the Englishman has dropped down the Power Rankings after his worst finish for some time. A tie for 43rd at the weekend isn’t an encouraging sign but he can never be written off.
Fleetwood’s Ryder Cup teammate Paul Casey (40/1) is further back in the BMW betting and, following seven top 10 finishes on both major Tours this season, he is in the frame for a single digit return once again.
Jordan Spieth (28/1) continues to improve out on the course but he has yet to convince the odds setters that he is ready to claim his first victory for over two years. Jordan has a solid record in this event, however, so could this finally be his week?
Reigning champion Keegan Bradley (150/1) is also carrying a longer price this week and he isn’t even in the top 20 for Power Rankings so we will pass on his chances of a successful defense. Other options could include Matt Kuchar plus the two-time BMW Champion Tiger Woods. Tiger doesn’t have the form or the big stats to suggest a strong four days but we suspect he may respond to produce a surprise in a tournament that has been productive in the past.
Others to consider in a typically strong field include Ian Poulter, Louis Oosthuizen, Billy Horschel and Marc Leishman. Australia’s Leishman won this tournament in 2017 and he also boasts a runner-up place but he was clearly struggling with his troublesome back last week so we are going to pass.
Our Preview’s BMW Championship Predictions & Picks Verdict with Course & Betting Trends
Course 3 at the Medinah Country Club in Illinois hosts the BMW Championship for the very first time. The venue is no stranger to big tournaments, having hosted three US Opens, two PGA Championships and, of course, that thrilling Ryder Cup in 2012.
Players will be faced with a par 72 at 7613 yards and there are two par-5s that exceed the 600 yard mark. Distance off the tee will help at times and that’s why Dustin Johnson is being talked up in places. With a good combination of distance and accuracy, DJ’s stats look good but we are opting for a man in much better form.
Jon Rahm’s last six starts have all seen him finish inside the top 11 and with strong supporting statistics, we feel that the Spaniard is ready to get over the line at Medinah. Rahm for the win is the BMW Championship prediction with two solid options, plus one left-field punt for some top 10 finish prop bets. So these are the BMW golf picks:
- Jon Rahm to win at +1000 with Bovada or Intertops.
- Also, Rahm at +250 with Intertops for a top 5 finish.
- Paul Casey (best at +300 Intertops), Webb Simpson (+200 Intertops) and Tiger Woods (+400 Intertops) for top 10 finishes.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.