It is the halfway point in this season’s FedEx Cup playoffs and for the third leg, the players are heading to the Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania for the 2018 BMW Championship.
Bryson Dechambeau is clearly the man in form after two straight victories but there’s a familiar name at the top of the BMW outright winner betting odds market.
Dustin Johnson, as usual, is heading the pack at +900 (odds courtesy of Bovada). DJ has been solid if unspectacular in recent weeks and a tie for 8th in Boston leaves him clinging on to his number one world ranking.
On the plus side, Johnson has a great record in the BMW Championship and along with Tiger Woods is the only man to have won it twice with the last of those victories coming in 2016.
Following his second place finish in the Dell Technologies last week, Justin Rose (+1200) is our second favorite this week and the Englishman could be about to match his late season form from 12 months ago. While there has been a lack of tournament wins this year, Rose’s consistency puts him in third place in the FedEx Cup standings.
He is also a former winner here in 2011 and was runner up to Marc Leishman last year so that second favorite’s berth shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Behind Rose, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas are locked on the same +1400 odds while man-of-the-moment Bryson Dechambeau (+1600) comes in next. Koepka leads our Power Rankings this week with some useful stats but neither he nor Thomas could secure a single digit finish at the Dell Technologies.
Dechambeau’s two wins make him an obvious player to consider but another man in serious form is Tony Finau (+2000). A second at the Northern Trust was followed by a fourth place on Monday night and he is showing that there is more to his game than mere power hitting.
Two former champions come in at the same 20/1 BMW outright winner odds as Finau: Rory McIlroy took out the BMW Championship in 2012 while Jason Day was a winner three years later but neither man is exactly in great touch right now.
Other players to mention towards the head of the betting market include Jordan Spieth (+2200), Rickie Fowler (also 22/1) and Tiger Woods (+2800) while Hideki Matsuyama (25/1) made a welcome return to the top 10 last week after a subdued few months.
Defending champion Marc Leishman (+5500) is some way down the board and a bit of a longshot in the outright markets. The Australian was also a runner up to Tiger Woods at this event in 2009 but an absence of form means he is nowhere near the Power Rankings for Aronimink this week.
The English pair of Tommy Fleetwood (30/1) and Tyrrell Hatton (50/1) will attract some interest: Hatton was in contention in Boston before fading on the final day while Fleetwood’s 24th placed finish highlights his inconsistency in the US this season.
Elsewhere, there is a host of golfers at long BMW Championship odds who have all been winners on Tour this year. They include current US Masters Champion Patrick Reed (55/1), three-time champion in 2018 Bubba Watson (60/1) and Brandt Snedeker (66/1) who was opening up with a 59 just a few short weeks ago.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (+6600) and Paul Casey (+7000) have both shown some consistency in recent weeks while Gary Woodland (+7000), Zach Johnson (90/1) and Alex Noren (125/1) could all come into contention in another strong field.
Our Preview’s BMW Championship Predictions, Final Betting Picks & Course Trends
The Aronimink Golf Club is new territory for an event which first came onto the Tour in 2007. Located in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, this is a par 70 but a relatively long one at over 7,200 yards so there could be some advantage for the big hitters at the par 5s and longer par 4s.
Expect this Donald Ross designed course to provide testing bunkers around the greens and some fiendish pin positions so GIR and scrambling are among the key stats over the four days.
Our BMW Championship preview’s betting pick is an unlikely one but there were some hints of a return to top form for Jordan Spieth in Boston. A narrowly missed eagle at the 18th robbed him of only a second top 10 finish since the Masters but there are signs that the putting is back and he is too good a player to miss out on a trophy for much longer. So these are the MBW tips and predictions for this preview:
- Jordan Spieth to win @ best odds of +2200 with Bovada.
- Bubba Watson (+500), Zach Johnson (+650) and Paul Casey (+450) for top 10 finishes, all odds with Bovada.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.