While we have been focusing on some high profile events on the PGA Tour in recent weeks, the European equivalent has been a little subdued but all that is set to change on Thursday. The BMW PGA Championship was first held in 1955 and returns this year to Wentworth with the strongest field on the other side of the Atlantic so far in 2018.
Last weekend was a profitable one for us with both Marc Leishman and Jimmy Walker landing as Top Ten betting picks. So let’s see if we can keep that run going with our BMW PGA Championship predictions as we cross over into Europe.
Please note that this BMW Championship preview will quote Bovada online sportsbook’s odds almost throughout, because they are a good guide and offer more markets for this golf tournament than any other of the USA-friendly sportsbooks. When we get to our betting predictions and picks at the end, we will give the best odds we can find from the entire range of top American betting firms.
There is a lack of our American players in this tournament but many high-profile European golfers have switched from the PGA Tour to compete. That leaves Rory McIlroy as clear +800 favorite with a significant gap in points over the chasers.
The Northern Irishman has also enjoyed success in this event, having taken the BMW PGA title in 2014 and some stronger showings in the first half of 2018 make McIlroy a worthy favorite this week.
Behind Rory, many bookmakers have three golfers locked at the same win price and they include our defending champion Alex Noren (+1400). The Swede won by two strokes from Francesco Molinari twelve months ago and after a largely productive switch to the PGA Tour in 2018, no-one would rule out a successful defence.
Another former winner of the BMW PGA lines up at the same odds: Paul Casey’s triumph at Wentworth came back in 2009 before switching to the US full time and although he has been profitable for us in the Top Ten markets over there, he tends to underperform when back in his native UK.
Tommy Fleetwood interests us more at the same win price and should have the game to succeed on this course. Elsewhere in this chasing pack, Branden Grace (+1600) arrives here after a career best closing round in the AT&T Byron Nelson at the weekend whilst we can also consider the claims of 2017 BMW PGA runner up Francesco Molinari (+2200).
We are now heading into a busier period for the European Tour but while things have been quiet, certain golfers have slipped down the markets and there could be some real value in this tournament. Among the names that really interest us are Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300) and Tyrrell Hatton (+3300), who enjoyed success in 2017, and they head up the list of outsider punts for Wentworth.
Hatton enjoyed back-to-back tour wins in October last year but has yet to rediscover that form while Fitzpatrick also claimed a late-season victory with the Omega Masters in September. Expect both men to succeed again this year but is their form solid enough for a BMW PGA win?
At similar long betting odds is the 2015 winner Byeong Hun An (+3300) and you can also pick up Shane Lowry (+2800), runner up to McIlroy a year earlier. Moving further down, Paul Dunne (+3300) started 2018 in good touch while Kiradech Aphibarnrat (+5000), Joost Luiten (+5000), Ross Fisher (+5500), Martin Kaymer (+6600) and Lee Westwood (+7500) are all here and have the stats to suggest they can’t be ruled out.
BMW PGA Championship Picks & Predictions with Course & Betting Trends
After many years of rotation, the Wentworth Club in Surrey became the permanent home for this tournament in 1984 and we are back to the southern fringes of London once again. This is a par 72 but with a fairly modest length of just under 7,300 yards so there is no great advantage to the distance hitters over four days.
This is a tree-lined heathland course with fairly tight fairways and in order to compensate for its lack of length, a number of additional bunkers and water hazards have been introduced over a sustained period of remodelling. Greens are relatively fast and the recent warm and dry English weather is set to continue so form with the putter along with accuracy off the tee are desirable qualities this week.
Colin Montgomerie famously completed a hat trick of wins in 2000 and multiple victors are fairly common throughout the history of this event.
With such a strong entry it could be a week to focus on Top Ten bets but if pushed for a winner we would look to side with Tyrrell Hatton. We have tipped 2018 to be a breakthrough year for the 26 year old and while he has been a little disappointing on the PGA Tour, it won’t be long before he is lifting trophies again and a return to Europe will suit him.
So these are the BMW PGA Championship betting predictions and advised wagers for this preview:
- Tyrrell Hatton to win @ +3300 (33/1) with Bovada or Intertops.
- Hatton for a Top 5 finish @ +650 (13/2) with Bovada.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+275), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (+400) and Tommy Fleetwood (+120) for Top 10 finishes, and all those odds are from Bovada.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.