Mercedes have dominated the early running of the 2020 Formula One season and Lewis Hamilton is the favorite to take victory at his home race at this weekend’s British Grand Prix (Race: 9.10am ET Sunday).
This is the first of two back-to-back races at the Silverstone circuit, comprising the fourth and fifth rounds of the delayed 2020 season. Events at the Mugello and Imola circuits in Italy, Germany’s Nurburgring and Portugal’s Poritmao have recently been added to the season’s schedule.
Read on for our F1 big-race preview, which concludes with our British GP predictions and picks at the best of the odds with the betting sites.
Any hope that the strange circumstances of the season might act to erode Mercedes’ advantage at the front of the field have swiftly been put to rest by their performances across the first three races. Three pole positions, three race victories and 66 more points than any other team represents a pretty dominant start to the year.
Reigning drivers’ champion Lewis Hamilton won from pole position in Hungary two weeks ago to take his second victory of the season. Max Verstappen recovered impressively from seventh on the grid and his embarrassing pace-lap crash to make the most of the early changeable conditions. He split the two Mercedes and finished second for Red Bull ahead of Valtteri Bottas.
It is difficult to see Mercedes being beaten at Silverstone this weekend. Hamilton has won the race in five of the last six years and is the most likely victor on Sunday, something that is accurately reflected in the USA sportsbooks’ betting lines ’ odds, which offer very little value.
The first place where some value can be found is in betting on Racing Point to enjoy a strong weekend. Lance Stroll and Sergio Perez qualified third and fourth in Hungary last time out, and came home fourth and seventh respectively in the race. The team’s car features various similarities to last-year’s title winning Mercedes and should be well-suited to the long sweeping corners of the Silverstone circuit.
Verstappen will wring everything he can from the car but Red Bull do seem a step or two behind the pace they had last season, and Alexander Albon, who came home fifth in Hungary, has been some way behind his team leader. Ferrari are miles off the ultimate pace, particularly in the power department, and the deficiencies of their package are likely to be fully exposed by the layout at Silverstone.
With all that in mind, Racing Point look well-placed to challenge for a podium and Perez is the most likely of their two drivers to take it.
Sebastian Vettel grabbed sixth for Ferrari in Hungary, ahead of Perez, with the final three points-scoring positions then filled by Daniel Ricciardo’s Renault, the McLaren of Carlos Sainz, and Kevin Magnussen’s Haas, off the pace but able to gain track position by gambling on slick tyres on the drying track at the start of the race.
Sainz took sixth for McLaren at last year’s British Grand Prix and has a decent chance of replicating that result this time around. Hungary wasn’t the best weekend for the team but their haul of 39 points from the opening two races (from one third, two fifths and a ninth, plus the fastest lap on both occasions) currently has them third in the constructors’ championship behind Mercedes and Red Bull.
McLaren seem to have a good package and one that can be expected to go well at Silverstone. A return to the top six should be within reach.
The points finish betting market has become a little tricky this year given the fact that we seem to have three teams who are someway off the rest of the midfield. Alfa Romeo and Haas are hamstrung by a lack of power from their Ferrari power units, while Williams are improved from last season but still slower than most.
With the cars of the top five teams plus Ricciardo’s Renault all habitually odds-on to finish in the points, it is only really the AlphaTauri cars who fall into the sweet spot of attractive odds coupled with enough pace to finish in the top 10 if there are a couple of retirements or otherwise difficult races for those ahead of them. They have twice finished in the points so far.
Daniil Kyvat came home ninth for the team under their previous name of Toro Rosso at last year’s British Grand Prix and also finished in the points for them in both 2016 and 2014. Many of the elements of this year’s AlphaTauri car are based on last season’s Red Bull that had very solid pace at Silverstone, with both cars qualifying and finishing in the top five. Kyvat therefore has a solid chance of getting into the top 10 on Sunday.
Our F1 2020 British Grand Prix predictions for this preview are as follows:
- Bet on Sergio Perez to finish in the top three (podium finish) of the British GP @ +250 (5/2) with 5Dimes. It is +175 with Intertops & BetOnline.
- Back Carlos Sainz to finish in the top six @ +120 with Intertops, 5Dimes or BetOnline.
- Expect Daniil Kyvat to finish in the top 10 (points finish) @ best odds of +225 with 5Dimes. It is +200 with Intertops & BetOnline.
Nick is our international soccer and Formula 1 expert. As well as contributing to USA Betting, he writes for many top sports websites and national newspapers. The biggest brands he currently or has written for include: The Independent, ESPN, The Bleacher Report, JustBookies, StatsBomb & more.