It’s tough for any tournament to follow a major and the Charles Schwab Challenge has the unenviable task of taking over after a dramatic four days at the PGA Championship. Established as the Colonial National Invitational, it’s been a fixture of the Tour since 1946 and we can generally still expect a strong field.
While Phil Mickelson was making history at Kiawah Island, we claimed an overall profit as Will Zalatoris returned in the top 10 finish betting market at +450. Let’s see if we can build on that with our predictions as we switch to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.
Jordan Spieth is back in form and he is also a former winner of this event, having claimed the title by three shots from Harris English in 2016. Spieth is the favorite with most sportsbooks and can be backed at general odds of +1000. Prior to his long trophy drought, this was a favored event for the Texas native with runners up slots either side of that victory in 2015 and 2017.
Justin Thomas starts as second favorite and can be found at an industry best of +1200. JT finished in a tie for tenth on his debut here last year after sitting in a strong position on the final day but his missed cut at the PGA Championship is an obvious concern.
Just behind the top two are reigning champion Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa who finished tied for the lead in 2020 on 15 under par. Berger won the ensuing playoff but has the longer odds this year at around +1800 while Morikawa is shorter at a best of +1400. Both men have good, relevant stats with Morikawa leading the Tour in Greens in Regulation and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.
Moving through the chasing pack sees Abraham Ancer at 20/1 while Patrick Reed, Tony Finau and Will Zalatoris are all available at 22/1 in places. Finau tied for second here behind Kevin Na in 2019 while Zalatoris is making his Charles Schwab Challenge debut. Reed remains consistent on Tour and tied for 17th on Sunday.
Then come Corey Conners at 25/1, Scottie Scheffler at 28/1 plus Sungjae Im and Joaquin Niemann who are both available at 30/1. Niemann and Conners provide the consistency with a string of cuts made while Scheffler has the better form after finishing inside the top ten at Kiawah Island.
Justin Rose has kept his best form for the majors in 2021 and he heads up the outside bunch at best industry odds of 35/1. The Englishman is the 2018 Charles Schwab Challenge champion and hasn’t missed a cut here in eight attempts.
Elsewhere, Brian Harman and Charley Hoffman are quoted at 40/1 while Gary Woodland is further back at 50/1. Other outside options to consider include Billy Horschel at 60/1, Chris Kirk at 66/1, Kevin Na at 66/1, Cameron Tringale at 70/1 and Matt Wallace at 70/1.
Those names should all attract some interest this week. Both Na and Kirk are former champions in this tournament in 2019 and 2015 respectively. Wallace makes it into the Power Rankings based on good stats and solid form which includes four top 25 finishes in his last six starts.
Naturally we should also mention Phil Mickelson, who is on offer at best odds of 70/1. Phil could be forgiven for sitting this one out after his incredible win on Sunday but he is set to be in contention and is a two-time winner of the Charles Schwab in 2000 and 2008.
Our Preview’s Charles Schwab Golf Predictions & Picks with Course & Betting Trends
The Colonial Course in Fort Worth, Texas is a permanent fixture for this tournament, unlike the name of this event. Numerous name changes have taken place since the first edition of the Colonial National Invitational in 1946 with the current sponsors coming on board in 2019.
The great Ben Hogan won the first two editions and would go on to land five victories and that remains a record for this tournament. Multiple winners are relatively rare with Zach Johnson the last man to double up in 2012.
The venue itself is a mere par 70 but there is some reasonable length at a shade over 7,200 yards. The biggest challenge may come from external factors such as high winds and rain which are typical features in Texas. The forecast is mixed with inclement weather expected at times. Otherwise, it is a fairly standard course with its key feature being small and fast greens.
One man who ticks all the boxes this week is Collin Morikawa. He finished in a tie for the lead last year and has all the relevant stats going into Thursday. All he needs to convert is to show solid touch with the putter and he should be clear of the pack.
Morikawa for the win is the main pick while there are some strong suggestions for single digit finishes in the top 10 finish betting odds markets. So these are the Charles Schwab predictions for this preview:
- Collin Morikawa to win @ +1400 with Bovada, Bookmaker or BetOnline.
- Top 10 Finish Picks (best odds in brackets): Morikawa (+163 Bovada), Corey Conners (+210 BetOnline), Charley Hoffman (+350 Bovada, BetOnline) and Matt Wallace (+500 BetOnline).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.