One of the most anticipated matchups of the NFL season thus far takes place on Sunday night. The 3-2 New England Patriots will host the 5-0 Kansas Chiefs in a battle of Super Bowl contenders (8:20 p.m. ET on NBC).
The tables have turned in this matchup. Usually, Kansas City is the slightly above-average team, and New England is the team that is beating any and all-comers, but not this year. However, the Patriots have looked very good in the past two weeks and the Chiefs have by no means dominated most of their opponents this season.
Recently, the Chiefs have had some success against the Pats. Kansas City has won two of the past three matchups against New England dating back to 2014. The Chiefs have outscored the Patriots 103-68 in that time frame.
Will Kansas City stay unbeaten or will the veteran Patriots continue their hot streak? We’ll find out Sunday night, but let’s break down the matchup ahead of time and see what we should do with the posted betting lines. That, of course, means concluding with our Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots predictions with betting picks for this preview.
Will Patriots’ Veteran Defense Force Patrick Mahomes Into Mistakes?
One of the fascinating matchups of this game is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes going against the veteran defense of the Patriots. Mahomes has explosive and athletic weapons to throw to in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. Those guys figure to have a speed advantage against a Patriots defense with many slower veterans.
However, Mahomes does have just six NFL starts under his belt. He also is coming off his worst start of the year in which he threw two interceptions and no touchdowns. On the Patriots’ side, head coach Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind and has a bunch of starting defenders with many years of experience. Belichick has had great success against rookie quarterbacks in his career, boasting a 16-5 record and a 9-0 home record against teams starting rookies under center.
Will Belichick and his vets be able to stymie Mahomes, or will the budding superstar use his talent and ample weapons well to confound the Pats?
Can Josh Gordon Continue to Develop Chemistry With Tom Brady?
Before the Patriots signed Gordon last summer from free agency, Brady had a decent set of weapons to throw to. Rob Gronkowski is a superstar at tight end, but the wide receiver corps was just OK and didn’t really feature a major deep threat.
If Gordon can find his chemistry with Brady and learn the Pats’ offense, he can be the guy to take New England from being a very good offense to an absolute scoring machine this season. Remember, Gordon had an astounding 1646 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in just 14 games during the 2013 season with the Cleveland Browns. That was with a quarterback trio of Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer.
Now, Gordon has spent the last few years struggling with off-field issues, but the talent is obviously still there. He has had a few nice moments in his first two games with the Pats. He’s an athletic wideout who can go and get 50-50 balls high in the air.
New England and Brady must continue to figure out how to maximize Gordon’s impact on the offense.
Will Chiefs Defense Continue to Come Through on Third Downs?
The Chiefs’ defense has been a bit of a disappointment thus far, even though the team has an undefeated record. Kansas is dead-last in yards allowed per game (461.8) and is 20th in points allowed per game (25.8).
However, Kansas City has been excellent at key moments and in key spots. The Chiefs’ opponents convert just 29.3 percent of their third downs (second-best in the NFL). There have been many times where they have forced opponents into unwanted field goals or punts after they had reasonably effective offensive drives.
The Patriots won’t be an easy offense to stop on third down. They are 11th in third-down conversion percentage this season and have ranked in the league’s top half of that statistic in 18 consecutive seasons. That’s downright insane.
The matchup between the Kansas City defense and the New England offense will be a key one to watch on third down.
Our Preview’s Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Week 6 Betting Picks & Predictions Verdict
I trust the Patriots’ play-calling both to keep Patrick Mahomes from carving them up and convert enough third downs to string together long scoring drives. Andy Reid is a solid head coach on the Chiefs’ side, but he’s no Bill Belichick. The Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots predictions for this peview are:
- The most trustworthy U.S. betting outlets have the Patriots as a slim favorite at home, usually by a field goal or 3.5 points. The best use of your money is betting on the Patriots -3pts @ -125 with Bovada, 5Dimes or Bookmaker.
- Oddsmakers are all-in on this game being an explosion of offense. I personally think they are going a bit overboard with their over/unders, as New England is good at pacing games and often puts together long, methodical drives to keep its defense fresh. I don’t see the Chiefs fully hitting their stride offensively, either. The second of our picks is to bet the under 60 total points being scored @ -115 with Bovada.
Jared is a lifelong sports fan and writer whose specialist subject is NBA. A 2015 graduate of Indiana Wesleyan University, with a bachelor’s degree in journalism, Jared has been a sought-after freelance sports writer. In addition to his valuable USA Betting contributions, he has also written for other top media outlets.