FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Preview, Predictions, Betting Picks: Cincy Can Take The Points

Luciano AcostaIn-form MLS squads clash when FC Cincinnati host New England Revolution at TQL Stadium on Saturday (6pm ET). Cincinnati will be looking to keep themselves near the top of the Eastern Conference table, while the visitors need to move towards the play-offs after a slow start. This preview will analyze the matchup and conclude with betting predictions and picks.

FC Cincy continued to ride their wave last time out, as they went to Chicago and returned with all three points thanks to a 1-2 victory over the Fire. That victory came after they lost to Saturday’s opponents in the US Open Cup, which was something of a humbling defeat, though in Major League Soccer, they’ve been strong of late. Few people would’ve expected to see the men in blue and orange, who’ve won each of their last four MLS fixtures, sitting just a single point behind the conference leaders after 12 games, that’s for sure.

As for last season’s runaway Eastern Conference winners (regular season), well, things haven’t gone too well this time around, though they have started to turn the corner in recent weeks. Bruce Arena’s men come into this fixture unbeaten in their last three MLS matchups, and although they have only won one of those three, such a run of results represents progress. They are currently down in 11th spot, but with it still being early in the season, it won’t take much for them to quickly move back to where they undoubtedly feel that they belong, so don’t go betting against the Revs in that sense just yet.

Mixed bag at home

Somewhat strangely and very much against the grain, Cincinnati, in terms of average points per game, have fared better on their travels this season. At home, they have been slightly underwhelming, losing three and winning two of their five fixtures at TQL Stadium.

Offensively, there’s been plenty for Pat Noonan’s men to shout about. They’ve scored nine goals, and have produced lots in terms of expected goals, averaging 11.3, which makes them the second best in the Eastern Conference in that area.

However, in the defensive third, Cincinnati have not covered themselves in glory, conceding in four out of five at home. In terms of xG, they’ve not done too badly, surrendering an average of 1.32, which is the sixth best in the east, but when push has come to shove, their resistance has been lacking. If they can’t tighten up on Saturday, then they could be in trouble.

Defensive woes

Fortunately for the hosts, the New England Revolution are yet to hit their stride defensively when playing away from home. Arena’s men have conceded in each of their five travelling MLS games this season, conceding at least twice in each of those five, shipping a worrying total of 13 goals. Only CF Montreal have conceded more away goal in the Eastern Conference. In terms of xG against, they have done a little better, but they are still in the bottom six, conceding an average of 1.62 expected goals, which doesn’t exactly point towards them going to TQL Stadium and shutting up shop.

Revs dominant

When it comes to this fixture, the Revs have dominated in recent times, there can be no getting away from that fact. Saturday’s visitors have won each of the last four renewals, including a US Open cup game, which took place less than two weeks ago. On that occasion, the Revs won by five goals to one. Although neither side had what could be described as their strongest team on the field, such a result is hard to ignore.

During the 2021 campaign, Arena’s men beat Cincinnati both home and away, winning by a goal to nil at TQL Stadium, before romping to victory in Foxborough (4-1). Saturday’s hosts have won just one of the five competitive renewals of this fixture.

Where’s the bet?

The Revs won the recent US Open Cup game between this pair, and won it comfortably, plus they are still a side that can do lots of damage, despite their relatively unflattering league position. However, this preview shouldn’t read too much into either of those things. After all, Saturday’s hosts were not at full strength during the cup game, nor were they at home, nor did that appear to be as important to them as fighting for a playoff place in Major League Soccer.

At the current betting lines, the home win appeals. For all some results haven’t gone their way at home, Pat Noonan’s hosts have done a solid job of creating more than they’ve conceded, as an average expected goal difference of +0.94 suggests. In contrast, the Revs have an average expected goal difference of -0.19, which tells us that they’ve found it tough to create more than they give away. On this basis, the odds look good value.

Similarly, ‘Cincinnati to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out as a viable option too. With Luciano Acosta and Brandon Vazquez, who have 11 goals between them this season, in their ranks, the hosts carry a real threat, as many teams have found out, with them scoring two or more in three of their last four at home. Combine this with the Revs’ defensive record on the road and home goals start to look very appealing.

So these are our FC Cincy vs Revs betting predictions and picks, at best odds, for this preview:

  • FC Cincinnati to win on the moneyline @ +195 with Bovada.
  • FC Cincinnati to score over 1.5 goals @ +120 with EveryGame.