Borussia Dortmund and Lazio go head-to-head at Signal Iduna Park as they continue their fight for top spot in Group F of the Champions League (3pm ET Wednesday). After tasting defeat at the weekend, both teams approach this fixture in something of an unusual position. Will either bounce back with a win?
USAbetting gives a full match preview with Borussia Dortmund vs Lazio predictions before wrapping up with our betting picks.
After four matches, Dortmund find themselves top of Group F, though the job is far from done. Italian outfit Lazio are just a point behind their German counterparts, which means that everything is still to play for in the race for group supremacy.
In terms of goals, the pair are also evenly matched. Dortmund have notched nine, while Lazio have found the net on eight occasions. At the other end, as far as goals presented to the opposition goes, the two sides have also performed similarly. The Italians have shipped four, while the Germans have surrendered three.
The previous meeting
This is of course the second time that pair will meet in Group F. Back in October, Lazio beat Dortmund by three goals to one in Rome. Given that it was Wednesday’s hosts that dominated proceedings in terms of possession, with a 61% share, some may say that I Biancocelesti were fortunate to come out on top, which isn’t necessarily incorrect.
However, one thing was clear, that Lazio are no mugs especially when playing against a side that likes to push forward, as Dortmund tend to at every opportunity. The Germans outshot the Italians and narrowly outperformed them in terms of expected goals but their inability to guard against the counter and general cavalier approach proved to be costly. Unless they can tighten up defensively then another surprise could be on the cards for Lucien Favre’s men.
Few slips along the way for hosts
In general, the side managed by Lucien Favre are feared on their own patch, though in recent home matches, they have started to wobble. At the weekend, the men in yellow were somewhat surprisingly beaten by Koln, losing by two goals to one. As was the case in Italy, they were once again hurt on the break. In attack, Dortmund threatened, as is almost always the case, what with goal-machine Erling Haaland leading the line, as well as the general embarrassment of creative riches at their disposal.
They were however quite wasteful, not for the first time this term, while their defence created a rather negative impression. BVB have now conceded five goals in their last two home matches, so there is certainly hope for the visitors, despite what the early betting with the top online sportsbooks for stateside players may suggest.
Visitors toughening up on the road
Lazio have been a bit patchy on their travels this season. To say that they have been infrequent road winners is probably the best way to describe their endeavours, though they have started to make a habit of avoiding defeat when plying their trade away from the comforts of Rome’s Stadio Olimpico.
They recently secured a simple victory away against Crotone and are now unbeaten in four on the road, two of which have been Champions League fixtures, meaning that Simone Inzaghi’s men are yet to taste defeat away from home in Europe’s premier competition this term. In all competitions, Lazio have lost just one of their last seven travelling fixtures.
Dortmund come into this match without being able to call upon a couple of key players. Energetic, attacking full back Raphael Guerreiro, who scored an impressive eight goals last campaign, is out, as is Belgian Thomas Meunier, who has been a regular starter ever since joining from PSG in the summer. Not having either available causes a few selection problems for Favre, while it undoubtedly weakens a backline that was already starting to shake.
Where’s the money going?
As the hosts, Dortmund are predictably fancied to emerge victorious, though should they be as hot in the betting as they are? Those looking to support the home side can get on the moneyline at rather short odds of -175. Those who feel that the visitors can record a second victory over the Germans may just fancy taking some of the potentially generous +400.
At the odds available, the best option looks to be Lazio +1 goal on the spread, which yields a profit if the visitors avoid defeat. When we consider how the visitors have fared away from home of late, coupled with the fact that Dortmund, who are missing important players, come here after a few shaky efforts on home soil, such a pick is appealing.
Add in the fact that Lazio’s cautious, counter-attacking approach paid dividends when the pair met not that long ago and siding with the visitors to take at least a point from Wednesday’s encounter is hard to resist. So this is the betting picks’ conclusion of our Borussia Dortmund vs Lazio predictions:
- Bet Lazio +1 goal on the spread @ best odds of -116 with Bookmaker.