Farmers Insurance Open 2023 Golf Predictions, Preview, Picks, Betting Odds: Who’s Doubting Thomas?

Justin ThomasFor the second year, the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open golf will begin on a Wednesday. The change in the schedule is done to avoid a clash with the NFL, and it provides the only Saturday finish on the PGA Tour.

The tournament has been on the circuit since 1952 and it uses two courses at the Torrey Pines Golf Club. This year, the field is particularly strong and it promises to be a tight and low scoring battle across the four days.

Jon Rahm is the outstanding male golfer right now and he ticks every box as he leads the market at 6/1. Firstly, the Spaniard is on top form: It is still January, yet he’s already won two events this year, with Sunday’s victory at the American Express following his win at the Tournament of Champions. He also has a stunning record in this event with a win in 2017 followed by four finishes inside the top seven.

If we add in the fact that Rahm won the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2021, we have an obvious favorite and a potential Farmers Insurance Open champion in 2023. He is so far clear in terms of form and previous record in this event.

There’s a gap between Rahm and the chasers who are led this week by Xander Schauffele at 11/1. He has yet to win this event, but Schauffele was one of five runners up behind a rampant Patrick Reed in 2021.

Next up are Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas who are both available at 12/1 (but JT is as long as 16/1) while Tony Finau is only just behind at 13/1. The distance of the two courses could suit Finau, but his all-round game was off, after our preview had tipped him as last week’s winner.

Max Homa, Will Zalatoris and Sungjae Im are next with all three available at 20/1. Further back, Hideki Matsuyama is quoted at 22/1 while Jason Day is at 25/1. Zalatoris pushed 2022 champion Luke List close, eventually settling for the runners up slot after losing out in a playoff. Jason Day is a two-time Farmers Insurance Open champion and our most recent multiple winner. The Australian claimed the trophy in 2015 and 2018, but current form will put many bettors off.

There isn’t too much depth among the outside bunch this time. There will be some attention around Luke List as the defending champion and he will go off at around 40/1. List was exceptional as he eased past Will Zalatoris’ challenge 12 months ago, but this remains the only PGA Tour win for the 38-year-old.

Others that may be worth considering here include Taylor Montgomery at 30/1, Sahith Theegala at 35/1, Keegan Bradley at 40/1, Rickie Fowler at 40/1, Scott Stallings at 50/1, Cameron Champ at 55/1, Adam Hadwin at 75/1 and Harris English at 80/1.

There is always room for an upset, but there is so much quality at the top of the stateside sportsbooks’ betting lines, and we suspect that the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Champion will go off at a relatively short price.

Our Preview’s Farmers Insurance Open 2023 Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict

This tournament first appeared in 1952 as the San Diego Open and it has been through a number of name changes in more than 70 years. Farmers Insurance have been on board since 2010 and Torrey Pines has been a constant venue since that point.

Over the first two rounds, golfers will rotate between the North and South Courses, while the South has exclusive hosting for the final two days. Both are par 72s, but the South is a monster at some 7,765 yards.

Length can be important but recent results suggest that a lack of power off the tee isn’t a barrier. Last year’s winner Luke List ranked only 12th for Driving Distance while previous champions Justin Rose and Marc Leishman were way down the field as far as this particular stat was concerned.

There can be some value for the power hitters in three of the four rounds, but the North Course has its own challenges.

Overall, the winners tend to rank highly in scrambling while Jon Rahm was placed first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, when he won in 2017. Greens in Regulation was another key stat in 2022, so it seems we are looking for a good all-rounder in 2023.

Justin Thomas has frustrated us in recent months. Whenever we reach one of these tournaments where a range of stats are desirable, he is one of our regular picks, but he often fails to threaten the top ten. Once again, he is ticking a lot of boxes so this preview keep the faith with JT for one final time. Justin Thomas for the win is the main betting pick against the bookies, while there are three more top 10 finish selections which will hopefully get us back to winning ways. These are our betting predictions and picks for the 2023 Farmers Open tournament this week:

  • Justin Thomas to win @ 16/1 (+1600) with Bovada. He’s 14/1 with BetOnline.
  • Top 10 Finish Picks: JT, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama and Taylor Montgomery. Odds for this market will be available with Bovada, BetOnline and EveryGame.