Shedaresthedevil is a beatable favorite in the Indiana Oaks 2020 (7.10pm ET Wednesday) on ratings. The race is confined to fillies aged three and takes place over one mile and half a furlong on dirt at Indiana Grand racetrack.
As only horses in the Classic generation can take part, there are no multiple winners. Since the first running in 1985 two jockeys (Julien Leparoux and Robby Albarado) have had a record four wins. Only Carl Nafzger has trained the winner more than once (1995 and 2014). The 19-year gap is rare for a Graded contest and he trained the successful horses for different owners.
Here are some 10-year betting trends for the Indiana Oaks winners:
- The average price of the winners: 4.9 (3.9/1).
- Range of Starting Prices: 0.1 (1/10) to 15.2 (just over 14/1).
- Number of outright and joint favourites: 4.
- Odds-on favourites: 3.
- Double-figure priced winners: 2.
- Most common range of odds: 4 winners from 3.1 (2.1/1) to 5.3 (4.3/1).
The average speed figure, according to one leading US source, for the last 10 winners of the Indiana Oaks is 101 in a range from 92 to 110. Five winners had a rating above 100 and five had a rating of 100 or less.
Tessa Blue won the race for Frank Brothers and Mike Smith in 2007 with the highest winner’s rating of 116 in the history of the race. Shedaresthedevil’s current and career high rating is 97 and the horse has won three races from eight starts.
The current favorite for the race is an improving horse. Shedaresthedevil’s has run to a rating of 83, 83 and 97 in her last three races. The horse is also a winner of a Grade 3 race, the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park in March of this year.
However, the standout form was on her most recent start. Shedaresthedevil won an Optional Claiming Allowance race with a prize fund of $83,000 at Churchill Downs at the start of June. That effort prompted connections to go down the graded route again but their horse looks vulnerable in one of the most prestigious US races for fillies aged three.
The current second favorite on the futures betting with the legal U.S. sports gambling websites for Wednesday’s race is Tempers Rising. There are 11 starters that go to post for the 7.10pm local time race. Bettors can place win, place and show bets and Tempers Rising has the form to make the three payout places at least.
It is also worth noting that Julien Leparoux rides the horse and he won the Indiana Oaks in 2016, 2018 and 2019. Dallas Stewart trains Tempers Rising and he trained the winner in 1998.
Tempers Rising has a current rating of 96 so in theory is only a pound behind the favorite on the figures. On the basis of the respective ratings, there is some value in backing the horse in the win market. However, place and show wagers looks like a bet to nothing because it’s difficult to see the horse not reaching the frame.
She finished second in a similar race but at Grade 2 level at Fair Grounds in March, picking up $80,000 in prize money. That is almost as much as the money available in total for Shedaresthedevil’s last race. Hence, Tempers Rising is the pick for the Indiana Oaks.
Shedaresthedevil should place which leaves one other payout place and a double-digit priced outsider fits the bill. Alandra finished third in the Grade 1 Darly Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland last October. The horse was bumped at the start so was better value for finishing behind the winner, British Idiom, and Perfect Alibi.
Alandra won her last start, an allowance race at Belmont Park in June in a time that suggests making the frame is not beyond her but possibly not winning the Indiana Oaks. The two market leaders are the horses for the Exacta with Tempers Rising preferred as the winner. Alandra is the third selection for the Trifecta which should generate a healthy payoff.
So our Indiana Oaks predictions for the first three places are:
- Tempers Rising.