The lowly Jacksonville Jaguars are traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the first place Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday (1pm ET; TV: Live on Fox).
This matchup may not be a highlight of this week’s slate, but we still see an edge to make some money with this preview and our Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers predictions.
The Jaguars have all but packed it in on the season. They have lost seven straight games after beating the Colts in week one, which likely ruined many people’s survivor pools and had bettors upset. They lost yet again last week, but managed to cover thanks to a touchdown run by rookie quarterback Jake Luton with 1:30 to play. They ultimately lost 27-25 to the Texans, but got to the window for any bettors who took them as +7pts home dogs. The Jags are now 3-5 against the spread on the season.
The Packers are well rested after demolishing the 49ers last Thursday night and are in sole possession of first place in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers at home has been a money machine and he is even better with the extra rest. Rodgers at Lambeau is an impressive 55-31-5 against our recommended USA top rated sportsbooks’ spread. Another interesting trend is Rodgers’ success with 10 days between starts (Thursday to Sunday). In 10 career games with the extra time to prepare Rodgers is 6-3-1 against the spread. Rodgers and the Packers look to be at nearly full strength on offense and should be dominant come Sunday.
Healthy Packers Offense Versus a Poor Jags Defense
This looks like a perfect spot for Rodgers and a healthy Packers’ offense to thrive. Aaron Jones has been battling a calf injury for much of the season, but looked to be back to his normal explosive self against the Niners last week. He only had 15 carries with the game out of hand, but the burst was there, which is promising for this week. Jacksonville can be had on both the ground and through the air. They give up on average 138.1 rushing yards per game (27th) and 280.0 passing yards per game (28th). The Packers’ explosive offense should have their way with this lackluster defense and be able to score at will.
The Jaguars give up on average 30.9 points per game, which is good for 31st in the NFL. They have been unable to stop teams and don’t have nearly enough firepower on offense to keep up.
One key injury to keep an eye on is starting tackle David Bakhtiari who was unable to play last week with a chest issue. He is the third best rated tackle on the season thus far. He was able to practice on Tuesday.
Last week the Jaguars were able to score with rookie quarterback Jake Luton, but that was against a weak Texans’ defense. Houston is right there with the Jags in abysmal defensive play giving up on average 30.2 points per game. Luton scored with 1:30 left in the game to get to 25 points. I do not expect nearly the same performance from Luton this week and think the Packers will be able to boat race them.
Our Betting Preview’s Jacksonville Jaguars vs Green Bay Packers Predictions & Picks Verdict
After last week I am a bit weary laying such a large number, but the Packers’ offense is much more impressive than the Steelers. Taking the large number with the Steelers, which in hindsight was a bad read, burned us last week. That was a classic letdown spot on the road against a bad team. The Packers are at home, off extra rest, and are facing one of the statistically worst defenses in the NFL this week.
Generally we don’t like laying nearly two touchdowns but it’s Aaron Rodgers and one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL. The Packers average 31.6 points per game, which is good for 3rd in the NFL. We saw them pour it on the Niners last week. They were up 21-3 and still went on to score 13 in the second half. The Niners scored a touchdown with no time remaining to lose 34-17, which would not have even covered this large of a number.
We are going to lay the points with the Packers this week. Currently the line is -13pts with the major bookmakers. The Packers can win and cover comfortably with their explosive offense against a defense that has given up a ton of points so far this season. We see this being similar to last week, which was against a much better team specifically the defense. I expect a 37-13 victory, which would easily cover the spread. I think Rodgers will want to put on a clinic to gain some ground in the MVP race and he has all the weapons to do so. So this is the concluding betting pick of our Jaguars vs Packers predictions and preview article:
- Bet on the Packers -13pts on the spread @ best odds of -110 with Intertops. It is -112 with BetOnline while Bovada is -115. Bookmaker go -13.5pts at -105.
Alex Uplinger is a sports betting analyst, writer, podcast producer and an expert on NFL and college basketball. As well as his football previews for USA Betting, Alex produces and co-hosts an NFL show for Full Slate and a sports betting podcast on the Blue Wire Network.