Kentucky Derby Preview, Predictions & Picks: Three Against Field

Tagg: Kentucky Derby predictionsIt may pay to oppose the current futures favorite, Tiz The Law, in the Kentucky Derby this year. There are a few longer prices to consider other than trainer Barclay Tagg’s impressive Belmont Stakes winner.

USAbetting will delve a bit deeper into the form of the race further down this Kentucky Derby predictions preview.

When Is Kentucky Derby 2020 Run & What’s The Distance?

The Kentucky Derby is usually run on the first Saturday in May but has an early autumn date this year of September 5 (3pm ET, televised live on NBC). It is a Grade 1 race for horses aged three in which colts and geldings carry 126 pounds and fillies, who rarely run in preference to the Oaks, receive a 5 pounds weight allowance. The famous ‘Run for the Roses’ takes place over 10 furlongs (one and a quarter miles) at Churchill Downs race track in Louisville and was first run in 1875. It takes its name from the Epsom Derby in the UK, one of the most prestigious Flat races in the world.

The Kentucky Derby is usually the first leg of the US racing Triple Crown which is completed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. However the Belmont Stakes came before it this year. Only 13 horses have won these three Classics and the most recent Triple Crown winners were American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018. Last year, Maximum Security was first past the post in the Derby but became the first winner to be disqualified. The stewards awarded the race to County House who had finished second. There is a maximum field of 20 runners.

Kentucky Derby Last 10-Year Betting Trends & Stats

  • Average price of winner: 11/1.
  • Range of starting prices for winners: 5/2 to 30/1.
  • Number of outright and joint favorites: 5.
  • Odds-on favorites (ie: below evens): 0.
  • Double-figure priced winners: 4.

Who Qualifies For The Kentucky Derby?

Only the Classic generation (three-year-olds) qualify so there are no multiple winners. Horses are invited based on the number of points earned in the most important prep races. The Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby are now two key trials. There is no clear draw advantage. The chances of a fast track and sloppy track are about even but there have been an above average number of wet Derby’s in recent years.

Who Are Trainers & Jockeys To Follow?

Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher and Doug O’Neill are the only multiple winning trainer this century. Victor Espinosa, John Velazquez and Mario Gutierrez have ridden the winner twice in the last decade. No owner or syndicate of owners have won more than one Kentucky Derby since 2000.

Who Wins 146th Kentucky Derby 2020?

At the time of writing, Tiz The Law is the leading point’s scorer in the qualifying races. The horse has won all three starts in 2020, two of which were at Grade 1 level. He won the Belmont Stakes on his last run which took place before the Kentucky Derby this year. Tiz The Law won the Florida Derby in March so clearly ticks many boxes. If he wins the Derby all roads lead to Pimlico race track and the Preakness Stakes in October. However, the odds are restrictive and at this early stage others are preferred.

Authentic is currently joint third for qualifying points in the list of Derby contenders. That tally of points means the horse is assured of a place in the 20-runner field if connections go down that route. Authentic finished second behind Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby in June. The horse was two and three quarter lengths adrift of the winner carrying the same weight. Authentic’s run in the Haskell Invitational Stakes at Monmouth Park in July will say much about his Derby prospects.

Art Collector has earned the same number of points in the Derby prep races as Authentic. The horse has won all three starts this season and has graduated from allowance claiming races to winning the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keenland in July. The horse has something to find on form with Tiz The Law but is improving and has the potential to beat the favorite.

A more speculative Kentucky Derby pick is Max Player who is well off the pace for points won but should qualify for the race. The horse has raced four times and only once aged three. Max Player was almost six lengths adrift of Tiz The Law when third in the Belmont Stakes. There could be enough progression to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby for which we are opposing the favorite with three live contenders at more rewarding odds.

2020 Kentucky Derby Predictions: What is Best Bet in 146th Kentucky Derby?

Tiz The Law is the current clear favorite in the futures betting with the best online sportsbooks for the USA to win the Kentucky Derby at the start of September but for our Kentucky Derby predictions, USAbetting’s preview recommends three bigger priced potential runners as our picks against the field.

Authentic (11/1 with Bovada, found in their ‘sportsbook’ section and then the ‘horses futures & props’ link), Art Collector (10/1) and Max Player (20/1) can be backed at healthy combined odds while the odds for the favorite are 2/1 (+200) with the same firm. The value lies in backing the less fancied picks and dutching them (altering your stake on each) to guarantee the same return whichever of the three wins America’s most famous race.