Kentucky Oaks 2020 Futures Preview & Predictions: Can Gamine Justify Favoritism?

Velazquez: Kentucky Oaks predictionsThe starting point for any form analysis of the Kentucky Oaks 2020, run the day before the Kentucky Derby on September 4, is Gamine. The filly was installed as favorite for the big race after winning the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park in June for jockey John Velazquez in record time by almost 19 lengths.

It was only Gamine’s third career start after she had been disqualified on her second run due to a positive sample after finishing first past the post in an allowance claiming race at Oaklawn in May. She easily won a Santa Anita maiden on debut in March. Still inexperienced, and yet to be beaten on raceday, there is no doubting the value of the Acorn Stakes form and she can progress to win the Kentucky Oaks.

The odds for Shedaresthedevil to win the race have shortened and the latest price is 8/1. The horse may not have the ability to beat the favorite but she has the form in the book to make the frame.  Shedaresthedevil won a quite valuable allowance claiming race at Churchill Downs in June and then won the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks earlier this month.

The five-length win over a horse carrying five pounds less, was an eye-catching piece of form coming into the Kentucky Oaks. It certainly puts Shedaresthedevil in the mix for the Place.

Spice Is Nice has also been the subject of a market move but is available at 14/1 with some offshore America-friendly racebooks in the futures betting. The horse won a maiden for fillies at Gulfstream Park in January and then ran well in a Grade 2 race at the same track in February.

Her last start at the same level at Gulfstream the following month was a little disappointing. However, finishing in the frame is within the horse’s compass but it looks beyond her to beat Gamine.

Record-breaker Gamine looks a worthy +150 (6/4) favorite in the latest futures betting for the Kentucky Oaks. Shedaresthedevil and Spice Is Nice could be the horses for the Place and Show.

Kentucky Oaks Predictions & Picks Verdict

  • Win: Gamine (+150 with Bovada)
  • Place: Shedaresthedevil (+800)
  • Show: Spice Is Nice (+1400)

Kentucky Oaks Last 10-Year Stats

  • Average price of winner: 10/1.
  • Range of Starting Prices of winner: Evens to 39/1.
  • Number of winning outright and joint favorites: 2.
  • Winning odds-on favorites: 0.
  • Double-figure priced winners: 3.

The average starting price is distorted by the 39/1 winner in 2012 and if you disregard that race, the average falls to 13/2. Two jockeys rode a record four winners in the 1950’s and 1960’s. Woody Stephens is the winning most trainer with five wins from 1959 to 1981.

Oaks Distance, Prizemoney & History

The Kentucky Oaks is a fillies’ race for horses aged three only. The race distance is one mile and one furlong on dirt. It’s a level-weights Grade 1 contest and all the horses carry 121 pounds. In 2020, the winner receives $750,000 form a total prize fund of $1,250,000.

While the three-year-old colts race for the Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Preakness Stakes) Classic generation females try to win the Filly Triple Crown. This consists of the Kentucky Oaks, Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and Acorn Stakes.

Rosie Napravnik won the race in 2012 and 2014 so is the only female to win a Grade 1 race more than once. She is the joint most successful jockey this century with Mike Smith and Jerry Bailey. Todd Pletcher has trained the most Kentucky Oaks winners since 2000, winning the race in 2004, 2007 and 2013. No owner or syndicate has won the race more than once over the last 20 renewals.