Mexican Open 2024 Golf Preview, Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks: Hot Grillo

Emiliano GrilloThe PGA Tour heads south of the border this week for the 2024 edition of the Mexican Open. This event was added to the official PGA Circuit two years ago and the two tournaments since that point have been won by Jon Rahm and Tony Finau.

With preparation underway for the US Masters in April, many top players are sitting this event out, but there is still a competitive field.

Last time out at the Genesis Open, we claimed two top 10 finish returns, including Adam Hadwin who came in at +600. With Sam Burns tied for tenth place, it was good enough for an overall profit, so let’s see if we can keep the run going this week with our 2024 Mexican Open betting predictions and picks for this preview.

Tony Finau is back to defend the title that he won by three strokes a year ago. That victory followed another strong showing a year earlier, when Finau was one of three runners-up to Jon Rahm. With most of the big players missing, Finau is clear at the top of the outright market and available at best industry odds of 15/2. His scoring average in his last six rounds at this week’s course is 64.83, so he is clearly the man to beat.

Behind the favorite, there is a big gap to Nicolai Hojgaard at a top price of 16/1 with the sports betting outlets. He is yet to make a mark on the PGA circuit but, in his last 13 starts, the Dane has a DP World Tour win, two runners-up slots and a third place.

Next are Stephan Jaeger (22/1) and Emiliano Grillo (best odds of 25/1). Grillo has made a solid start to the season and tied for fifth in this tournament last year. Jaeger also has a good record at the Mexican Open with two top 20 finishes.

A clutch of golfers follow at best odds of 28/1 with Thomas Detry, Thorbjorn Olesen, Keith Mitchell, and Taylor Pendrith all available at that figure. Olesen features strongly in the Power Rankings this week after winning on the DP World Tour last month. Detry arrives here after a tie for fourth at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has the distance hitting required on this course.

Other players to consider in this group include Patrick Rodgers at 33/1 and Ryan Fox at 35/1. Rodgers has recorded top ten finishes in each of the last two editions of the Mexican Open.

The list of underdogs begins with Brandon Wu and Erik van Rooyen who can both be backed at best odds of 40/1. Wu was one of three runners-up behind Jon Rahm in 2022, while Van Rooyen was a winner at the World Wide Technology Championship in November.

Aaron Rai, Mark Hubbard and Mackenzie Hughes follow at 50/1, while Cameron Champ is marginally further back at 55/1. Hubbard rates highly in the Power Rankings this week after making the cut in his first five tournaments of 2024. He tied for 18th in this event last year and led the field in Greens in Regulation which should be a key stat.

Other names to mention include Maverick McNealy at 60/1, Matt Wallace at 70/1, Charley Hoffman at 80/1, Scott Stallings at 100/1 and J.J. Spaun at 100/1.

Our Mexican Open 2024 Predictions & Betting Picks Verdict for this Golf Preview

Since the Mexican Open was added to the official PGA Tour in 2022, the event has taken place at the Vidanta Vallarta course. It is a par 71 but is a lengthy location at some 7,456 yards. Distance hitters will enjoy some advantages and that is one of the reasons why the powerful Tony Finau has performed so well here.

Accuracy is, however vital, and related stats will be important this week. More than 100 bunkers are in play at Vidanta Vallarta, while there are water hazards on four of the five par three holes.

Tony Finau has always had the power game, but he has added accuracy to become more consistent on Tour. He is a worthy favorite, but there are other strong contenders.

It is a week where you may prefer to focus on the top 10 finish betting lines but if we are pushed to name a winner, Emiliano Grillo ticks a lot of boxes. The Argentinian secured that tie for fifth here last year and he has opened the season in good form. Grillo has made the cut in all of his six events and has four top 25 finishes. So our betting predictions and picks for this week’s Mexican Open are:

  • Emiliano Grillo to win @ best betting odds of +2500 (25/1) with BetOnline.
  • Top 10 Betting Picks (odds from BetOnline, who are best on these players): Emiliano Grillo (+275), Cameron Champ (+600), Taylor Pendrith (+350) and Mackenzie Hughes (+550).