Continuing USAbetting’s preseason baseball award previews, this installment analyzes the MLB MVP odds. They are led by some pretty obvious frontrunners, but that also offers some value picks that could cash in big.
With a likely restart to sports events in the not too distant future, including the MLB, the sportsbooks have been sharpening up their betting lines in anticipation.
AL MVP Predictions & Pick
AL MVP Odds at Bovada: Mike Trout -105; Aaron Judge +1000; Gleyber Torres +1600; Francisco Lindor +1600; Alex Bregman +1800; Shohei Ohtani +1800; Matt Chapman +1800; +2500 & higher the rest.
It is shocking to see Mike Trout essentially running away with this award according to the odds at the United States’ bookies. Sure, Trout is the best player in baseball and one of the best of all-time. He is a career .305 hitter with 285 home runs and 752 RBI. He has already won three MVP awards (and finished second in another four), including last year, in just eight full seasons. He is an 8x All-Star, former Rookie of the Year and 7x Silver Slugger winner. Okay, so maybe the odds are warranted.
With Mookie Betts trading in his Boston red for Dodger blue, there really isn’t anyone on Trout’s level right now. Judge is second favorite but he is coming back from injury. The former Rookie of Year in 2017 has played just three full seasons in the league and he has certainly shown a lot of promise including that record-breaking rookie campaign. He has not shown yet that he is in the same class as Trout. No one is.
Trout is sharing a lineup with last year’s World Series hero, Anthony Rendon, who hit .319 last year with 34 home runs, 44 doubles and an MLB-leading 126 RBI. Might Rendon (+2500) steal some votes from Trout? It’s possible. What is more likely is that Rendon’s presence in the lineup leads to even better numbers for Trout.
If you want to take a run at a dark horse, Shohei Ohtani is always an interesting choice given his stature as MLB’s best two-way player in the game, but he is a teammate of Trout’s, likely meaning he will lose votes to the Millville Meteor. We would suggest traveling a little deeper down the odds. Rendon at +2500 is intriguing, so is Jose Altuve (+3500), but we like Rafael Devers (+3500) here to provide some value.
Devers is essentially inheriting a Red Sox team that no longer has Betts and he will be asked to fill that role. At just 23, Devers is a star in the making. He had a great year in 2019 and could be primed for an even better campaign in 2020.
- Of course, the favorite is short in the betting for a reason. If you are looking to take on a bet with a little more upside, our AL MVP predictions verdict is to take Devers at 35/1 (+3500) with Bovada to win the AL MVP
NL MVP Pick & Predictions
NL MVP Odds at Bovada: Mookie Betts +290; Ronald Acuna Jr. +550; Christian Yelich +700; Juan Soto +800; Cody Bellinger +1200; Fernando Tatis Jr. +1200; Bryce Harper +1200; +2000 & higher the rest.
Now, the NL MVP is much more of a race. We like the favorite, Mookie Betts, in this role though. Goodbye American League, hello instant MVP favorite. A 4x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger and 4x Gold Glove winner, Betts won the AL MVP in 2018, one of the years Trout finished only in second.
Defensively, Betts is a top-level player. Offensively, he is hitting a career clip of .301 with 470 RBI. There is really a lot to like about Betts now that he is with the LA Dodgers. Like that of the Angels, could it even be remotely possible that the Dodgers have too much firepower? It seems almost ridiculous to ask but players have lost MVP votes to teammates for a lot less than the Dodgers will be bringing into their starting nine in 2020.
Currently fourth favorite in the odds is 12/1 shot Cody Bellinger, last year’s NL MVP and Rookie of the Year from 2017. Then there’s Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Justin Turner. Jumping ahead in this preview a bit, even Gavin Lux, a strong favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year, could find himself pulling some votes with a top-level season. Point being, there is so much offense up and down this lineup, which means one thing. Opposing pitchers are going to have to pitch to someone. Betts has major lineup protection and he could well ride that to an MVP.
Don’t sleep on some of the other top guys. Yelich was a huge favorite to win the award last year before an injury cost him the last month or so of the season. Acuna Jr., Rookie of the Year from 2018, is such a talented young player whose ceiling has only seemed to rise since he debuted and Tatis is another guy who is really on the rise. That’s just the top five.
Bryce Harper (+1200), quietly had a fantastic season in his first year in Philadelphia and is a former MVP and Rookie of the Year. Nolan Arenado (+2000) is such a value pick but a lot depends on if the Rockies trade him as Coors Field is perhaps the most hitter-friendly park in all of MLB. Freddie Freeman (+1600) is always good for putting up big numbers and so is Kris Bryant (+3000).
If you are looking to tap a dark horse here, we love Pete Alonso (+2000). Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year and MLB home run leader, MVP seems the next natural step for Alonso, who feels like a player who just came out of nowhere. No one hits the ball with as much power and precision as Alonso. His swing is just so pretty and he made his MLB debut only a year ago.
- Alonso is already good and he is going to be great. Time will tell if he will make that jump as soon as 2020, but as a value pick for our NL MVP predictions, Alonso at 20/1 (+2000) with Bovada Sportsbook isn’t all that far-fetched.