Minnesota Utd vs FC Dallas Preview, Picks, MLS Betting Predictions: FCD the Value

Ondrášek: MNUFC vs FC Dallas PredictionsFC Dallas, who have now gone four matches without tasting defeat, travel to take on Minnesota Utd at Allianz Field on Wednesday evening (8pm ET). Can the visitors repeat their recent success against The Loons?

Read on for FC Dallas vs Minnesota predictions, betting picks and USAbetting’s full game preview.

Plenty of goals

Minnesota come into this fixture off the back of a thumping 4-0 win over Real Salt Lake last time out, so they are likely to be high on confidence. Of late, there’s been no shortage of goals when The Loons have taken to the pitch, though they have not always been at the right end. In fact, they’ve quite often been at the wrong end.

At least three goals have been scored in each of Minnesota’s last six fixtures, though they’ve won two of those six. They’ve lost each of the other four, conceding a rather concerning total of 11 goals. The clean sheet against Salt Lake last time out was their first in eight games. In terms of goals scored, Minnesota, having banged in a total of 18 in nine games, rank highly. Only two teams in the Western Conference have scored more goals than Adrian Heath’s men.

Tough Toros

While Minnesota have been involved in some high-scoring games of late, FC Dallas have taken a more cautious approach. Scoring goals hasn’t exactly been their specialty having notched just four in their last five matches, but The Toros have done an excellent job in terms of restricting teams, which is why they are now unbeaten in four. Dallas have conceded just two goals in their last four matches.

In addition, having drawn away against both Sporting Kansas City and Houston Dynamo, Luchi Gonzalez’s men are unbeaten on their travels during the regular season.

Familiar foes

With the way things are now structured, Minnesota and FC Dallas will be getting to know things very well over the coming months. This is already the second time that they have faced off. Less than a fortnight ago, the pair met at Toyota Stadium, where Wednesday’s visitors won by three goals to one. On the face of it, Minnesota, who were marginally the better team in terms of both possession and shots, were perhaps unlucky to walk away empty handed. However, if we look at the game in terms of scoring chances created, FC Dallas were worthy winners, as they created 1.8 ‘expected goals for’ to Minnesota’s 0.6.

The win at Toyota Stadium should mean that The Toros approach this fixture feeling confident, and rightly so. That said, they have lost two of their previous three matches at this venue. When the teams met at Allianz Field back in 2019, Minnesota won by a goal to nil.

What do the numbers say?

Since the resumption of the regular season, FC Dallas certainly haven’t hit the heights from a creativity point of view. They average just 0.92 ‘expected goals for’ per 90, which is far from ideal. Minnesota’s average is a much better 1.43, though it is they who’ve given more away on average. The Loons currently have an average of 1.56 ‘expected goals against’ per 90, while The Toros have surrendered an average of 1.24.

Such numbers don’t exactly make either side jump off the page as a great bet with the American-facing sportsbooks ahead of this match, but if we consider how things unfolded when they recently met, then the visitors start to appeal.

Dallas worth a punt?

Ahead of this fixture, Minnesota can be bet on around the +105 mark, which seems slightly stingy. In contrast, Dallas are available at a slightly chunky looking +245 on the bookies’ moneyline. In terms of creativity, Dallas haven’t matched Minnesota over the last month or so, but they have given slightly less away, while the way that they set up could easily see them do well in this fixture.

Minnesota will inevitably dictate possession at Allianz Field, while they will also look to push forward and put their visitors under pressure. While such an approach is certainly positive, it may be slightly foolish against a counter-attacking Dallas side. In the reverse fixture, Dallas, who seem to be getting better and better at soaking up pressure before pouncing, made light work of picking off The Loons, so much so that they look overpriced to do so again. With the sturdier back-line, Gonzalez’s men are worth supporting on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market.

Player Props

Those interested in a player prop ahead of this match could do much worse than betting on FC Dallas forward Zdeněk Ondrášek to find the net. The Czech international is without a goal since scoring against Montreal back in March, though some of his recent efforts point towards his current odds of +190 being on the large side to score at any time. After all, the 31-year-old averages 0.31 expected goals per 90, as well as 2.6 shots. Against a Minnesota back-line that is anything but sturdy, a small play on the striker to notch is advised.

Our Betting Preview’s Minnesota Utd vs FC Dallas Predictions & Picks Verdict

The MNUFC vs FCD predictions and picks for this betting preview against the bookies are:

  • Bet on Dallas on ‘draw no bet’ market @ best odds of +145 with Bovada. Next best is +140 with Intertops.
  • Expect Zdeněk Ondrášek to score at any time @ +190 with Intertops. He is +600 with the same firm to score first.