After winning first time out on the road, Minnesota United plays in front of a home crowd for the first time this MLS season. On Saturday (8.30pm ET), they welcome the New York Red Bulls to Allianz Field, where they will be hoping to go two from two at the start of the 2023 campaign. Read on for our MNUFC vs RBNY predictions, picks and full betting preview.
Contrasting beginnings
The Loons got the job done in their first Major League Soccer fixture of the season, despite playing away from the comforts of home. Facing Dallas on the road seemed a tough first task for Adrian Heath’s men, but they were not put off and stuck to their task doggedly. Sure, they were on the back foot at times, and they had to withstand some pressure, but soak it up they did. They pounced at the other end, courtesy of Mender Garcia, who scored just his second goal in a Minnesota jersey.
In contrast, things have not gone well for the New York Red Bulls. They have played twice at the start of this campaign and are yet to win. On game-week one, they returned from Orlando with nothing to show for their efforts, not even a goal, as they lost 1-0. Offensive issues seemed to be the big thing last time out too, as they failed to score in front of a home crowd, tying 0-0 with Nashville SC.
Not easy to face at home
Last season, the Loons made a habit of making themselves tough to beat in their own backyard. Their home defeat to FC Dallas towards the end of the regular season was only their fourth home defeat of the campaign, and prior to that game, they had gone six home matchups without losing. Adrian Heath will be hoping that his team can use that form to make an early stand at home this time around.
However, during game-day one, despite coming out on top, the Loons looked a little bit subdued in an offensive sense. Yes, they played away from home and are likely to adopt a slightly different approach in front of their own fans, but the fact that they had only 38% possession and created just 0.7 expected goals was perhaps a little worrying.
Visitors not firing offensively
Fortunately for the hosts, who did look a bit timid in the final third last time out, Saturday’s visitors have really struggled to get going offensively.
First up, NYRB went to take on Orlando on the road. Sure, playing away from the comforts of home first time out is not easy, and they were the better team in terms of both shots and shots on target during that contest, despite losing.
However, they did not kick on last weekend. If anything, they went backwards, as they failed to score for the second game in a row, and instead of really forcing the issue, they didn’t do much with the extra possession afforded to them by their visitors. They once again dominated the contest in terms of shot, but registered just three on target, while they posted a total of just 0.69 expected goals. Such stats don’t exactly point towards them running wild at Allianz field, that’s for sure.
When you look at the RBNY roster you can’t help but wonder where regular goals are going to come from. Tom Barlow has scored just five goals in 57 MLS appearances, Brazilian Elias Manoel is virtually an unknown quantity, while there is absolutely no guarantee that winger/forward Lewis Morgan will match last season’s efforts.
New signing Dante Vanzeir, who scored ten times in the Belgian top division during the 2022-23 campaign before departing, will have to step up.
Away teams often thrive in this fixture
This fixture tends to produce a winner, but strangely whichever team has played away from the comforts of home has often come out on top in recent times. When the teams last met competitively, the Loons won on the road in New Jersey, beating the Red Bulls by a goal to nil. That was in March of last year. Back in 2019, the Loons also emerged from an away fixture against NYRB, while when Saturday’s visitors last went to Allianz Field, they returned home with all three points.
Three of the four competitive renewals of this fixture have seen the away team win. The head-to-head scoreline overall stands at 2-2 with each team winning two of the previous four head-to-head battles. The fact that they created 1.3 xG tells us that they probably did deserve to score too.
Hosts can get it done at Allianz Field
We are of course at the very beginning of this season, so any patterns or meaningful form is yet to develop, but from what we have seen out of the gate, it could pay to side with a lack of goals in the early betting ahead of this fixture.
That said, rather than siding with ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ at around -125, take a chance on the home win at +173 on the moneyline.
Sure, they did not exactly set the world on fire offensively last time out, but they’re not exactly up against a menacing team on this occasion. What they did at home last season was good enough to suggest that they can get the better of a RBNY team that was lacking in ideas last weekend.
The fact that the visitors have scored no goals in two games is a worry, and although that run is likely to end sooner or later, a game at Allianz Field isn’t exactly what you want when in such poor scoring form. What’s more, after adopting a sit-back-and-counter style to good effect last time out, the hosts should enjoy playing against the Red Bulls, who may try to control the possession yet again.
After grinding out victory against a decent FC Dallas’ team, the Loons are worth betting on to stand firm and make it one win from one at home too. So the betting predictions and picks for this MNUFC vs RBNY MLS game preview boil down to the one recommendation:
- Minnesota United to win on the moneyline @ best odds of +173 with BetOnline.
Bradley Gibbs writes on MLS and other global soccer leagues for USA Betting. He also pens betting guides and strategy. Bradley has written for numerous sites and publications including Just Bookies and the Racing & Football Outlook.