Following their impressive week one win, the (1-0) New York Jets travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the (0-1) Indianapolis Colts in an NFL Monday night showdown (8:30pm ET, EPSN).
The Jets, who are coming off of their most lopsided victory, a 31-10 defeat of the Cleveland Browns, in nearly three seasons, will be meeting their AFC opponents for the first time since 2012. The two teams played to a Jets’ rout, 35-9, in what was just current Colts’ QB Andrew Luck’s fifth NFL start. A lot has changed in three years however and it could be said that the Colts and Jets are headed in opposite directions. But, Monday’s outcome could go a long way for showing if the Jets are actually contenders and if the Colts have really earned their place as AFC and Super Bowl favorites.
Andrew Luck’s Losing Streaks
Something to remember when it comes to Andrew Luck and your potential betting picks is that when he loses, he doesn’t tend to follow it up with a loss. In fact, in his NFL career, Luck and the Colts are 14-1 in games following a loss. Make that 18-1 dating all the way back to Luck’s college career with Stanford.
Avoiding prolonged losing streaks has helped Luck be as successful as he has. He understands the importance of getting back to the win column and does so most times, with the best performances of his career. It’s a small sample size but Luck averages just one interception per game and a 92.1 passer rating in the games following a loss. In all other games, that passer rating is nearly 10 points lower at 83.7 and the interception rate two marks higher at three.
And if that wasn’t enough to have you leaning toward betting on the Colts, consider this fact. The Jets have won two consecutive regular season games only once since the start of the 2013 season.
Colts Can’t Run
While picking the Colts does seem to be the best bet for our preview given their track record in these games, one thing to consider that could favor the Jets is pitting the Colts running game against New York’s rush defense.
The best way to describe Indianapolis’ rushing attack is non-existent. Luck and the passing game have always been the main threat in Indy but the absence of any sort of consistent ground attack is or at least should be, somewhat concerning.
Over the past few years, Colts’ running backs have finished either last or toward the back of the pack in rushing yards per game and total rushing yards in a season. Their backs have failed to supplant the passing attack and more often than not, became a liability. Indianapolis was forced to throw the ball in order to mask the rushing woes.
So far in 2015, it’s been more of the same as in week one, the Colts ran 53 passing plays to just 14 rushing.
This is somewhat of a surprise as the Colts specifically signed veteran Frank Gore to give them a more two-dimensional attack. But Gore carried the ball just eight times for 31 yards in the Colts’ opening game loss. At one point in the first half, the Colts ran 16 consecutive passing plays and seemed uncommitted to the run as well.
The Jets meanwhile, even if the Colts wanted to win, really wouldn’t make it easy. New York surrendered just 3.7 rushing yards per game last season and in their opening win, allowed Cleveland’s Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell just 42 yards on 19 carries which amounts to just over two yards per rush.
Our New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts Preview’s Betting Picks Verdict
I still believe the Colts are the wise betting pick for this game preview, but what could have been seen as a blowout might not be the case. The Jets and their improbable success both passing and running the ball last week (Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell combined for 153 yards on 32 carries) could give the Colts defense all they can handle.
So expect this one to be close. In the end though, it’s tough to bet against the Colts and their incredible bounce-back rate. Additionally, the Jets have lost 13 consecutive road games against teams to finish with a winning record and given Indy has won 11 games in each of the past three seasons, one can safely predict they fall into this category. On top of that, the Jets haven’t beaten a playoff team, again, something we can assume about the Colts, on the road since December of 2010.
The Jets have the offense to stick around and their defense isn’t half bad. But Johnny Manziel (pictured) and Josh McCown are definitely not Luck. And their receivers are no match for TY Hilton and Andre Johnson.
- Bet on the Colts to cover the -7pts spread by which they are favored @ current best odds of evens (+100) with BetOnline. Of the other top USA sportsbooks, the admirable 5Dimes goes -105 while Bovada are -110 on their betting lines.
- As for the total points in the game, take under 47pts @ -115 with Bovada. Alternatively you can get under 46.5pts @ -110 with BetOnline or 5Dimes.