The player prop market offers a great opportunity for bettors to exploit bookmakers. There are so many different players and props that books have to offer to stay competitive that they are unable to always hang the correct number.
There is a much better chance to find an advantageous player prop to exploit than betting the side or total, which are generally always so sharp. We will explore some of my favorite player props this weekend to give you winners. Make sure always to shop around at different books to find the best numbers. Some of these props vary wildly between sportsbooks.
Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 passing touchdowns +120 (BetOnline)
I expect this game to be a competitive shootout. I think Green Bay will want to make a statement early and I expect them to put up points. We just need those points to be passing touchdowns and not rushing touchdowns.
Their team total is currently over/under 27.5 points so bookmakers expect them to score at will as well. Rodgers played his worst game of the season in Week 6 against Tampa and you know he will have revenge on his mind. He will want to have an impressive game to make up for that abysmal performance where he threw zero touchdowns and two interceptions. This was the only game of the season he did not throw for a touchdown. Rodgers had three touchdown passes or more in 12 of his 16 regular season games.
During the regular season the Buccaneers ranked 21st in the NFL in average passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.8). I expect Rodgers to come out slinging to cover this number and we love getting it at plus money. The Packers have a plethora of weapons in the passing game and several options that can go deep and breakout for a touchdown.
Chris Godwin over 67.5 receiving yards -114 (BetOnline)
Fellow wide receiver Antonio Brown was ruled out for Sunday’s contest due to a knee injury. This should significantly increase the workload of Chris Godwin. I expect Green Bay’s best cornerback Zaire Alexander (spelling) to be shadowing Tampa’s best wide receiver Mike Evans for much of the afternoon. This will allow Godwin to have an easier matchup and I fully expect him to take advantage of this opportunity.
I could also see the Bucs getting down early where they would need to throw the ball more than normal to try to come back and win.
Godwin went over this number in six of his 12 regular season games and also against Washington in the Wild Card game. Last week against the Saints he was only able to muster 34 yards, but the team overall only had 189 passing yards thanks to four turnovers. They were playing with short fields for much of the game. I can see Godwin easily eclipsing this number and I think Godwin to score a touchdown at plus money (+150) could be another good angle to look at on Sunday.
Devin Singletary over 40.5 rushing yards -114 (BetOnline)
I think the Bills will want to try to control the game on the ground to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. The Chiefs can also be exposed on the ground. During the regular season they allowed 121.5 rushing yards per game, which was good for 19th in the NFL.
Singletary has emerged as the primary back after fellow running back Zack Moss went down against the Colts. On the season the Chiefs have allowed 18 running backs to rush for 41 or more yards. This includes last week when Cleveland’s Nick Chubb went for 69 yards on the ground.
If the Bills commit to running the ball some to keep the Chiefs defense from selling out against the pass I think Singletary can easily cover this number. I also may look to grabbing Singletary over 50.5 rushing yards to get the plus money (currently +108).