NFL Preview: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Betting Predictions & Picks

Josh Allen: NE Patriots vs Bills predictionsIt has been several years since the (3-0) New England Patriots have had serious and legitimate competition in the AFC East and even longer since that competition has been the (3-0) Buffalo Bills. Entering into Sunday’s head-to-head, that’s exactly the case as one of the NFL’s unbeaten will fall (1PM ET, live on CBS).

Perhaps a new leader will emerge in the division that has long been the stranglehold of the Patriots or, at the end of the day, New England’s dominance could be poised to continue. Let’s preview Sunday’s matchup before deciding on our picks and New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills predictions.

Wins are Wins

While the Patriots and Bills have a combined six wins so far this season, they have done so against teams with a combined one win. No, you didn’t read that wrong. The Patriots have defeated the winless New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Bills have victories against the winless Cincinnati Bengals, Jets and one-win New York Giants. It’s not exactly a who’s who of the NFL’s elite.

Ultimately, wins are wins and both teams are 3-0 and in position to take over the top spot in the AFC East at the conclusion of Sunday’s NFL game. It is a spot that the Patriots have held for the last 10 years in a row and with the exception of the 2008 season, all of the divisional championships since 2003. New England has shown itself to be an absolute powerhouse and dynasty not just in the AFC East but among all of the NFL. The Patriots are three-time defending AFC Champions and have won the conference five times since 2011. They have won the Super Bowl three times since 2014 as well.

The Bills are starting to return to relevancy after years of sitting among the bottom of the AFC East. In contrast to New England, Buffalo’s most recent AFC Championship came in 1993. Their most recent AFC East title was in 1995. The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, despite going to the big game four consecutive times in the early 90s. It has been a lot of heartbreak for the franchise but they are optimistic that things are starting to turn around. Turn around enough to beat the Patriots for the first time since 2016, and what would be just the fourth win against their divisional rivals since 2003? That remains to be seen.

Buffalo has played New England 117 times. That’s more than they have any other team besides the Jets, who they’ve also played 117 games against. In those 117 games, the Patriots lead 73-43-1. As noted above, it’s been a widely lopsided rivalry during the Bill Bellichick/Tom Brady era especially. With these two at the helm, the Patriots are 29-3 against the Bills. Brady has 68 touchdowns against Buffalo in that span. What is worst is that he has won more overall games (despite playing there just once a year) at Buffalo’s New Era Field than any quarterback who has played for Buffalo since 2001.

One quarterback who is looking to change that however, is Josh Allen, Buffalo’s latest but perhaps best attempt at their franchise signal caller for the future. Allen had his first crack at the Patriots last year and fared about as well as any Bills’ QB before him. That was his rookie year and he still had to figure some things out. This New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills preview is not saying he is fully there yet but Allen has seemed more poised and composed this year. In tough moments, he has delivered for Buffalo, helping his team eek out close victories against the Bengals and Jets.

That right there is a bit concerning for the Bills as they enter easily their toughest game of the season. The Bills defeated their winless opponents by a total of five points. Their biggest victory came against the (1-2) Giants, who Buffalo beat by 14. New England has had the benefit of only playing winless teams but has defeated them by 89 points across three games.

So while both of these teams have played some of the NFL’s easier schedules, they have done so to different results.  In terms of quality victories, the Patriots have dominated their opponents while the Bills have just gotten by in some cases. That’s why it shouldn’t be all that surprising to see that the Patriots are 7 to 7.5pts road favorites with the main American-facing oddsmakers.

When it comes to this NFL matchup, Buffalo will have to do a lot better if they hope to take down New England. Otherwise, they might get labeled as pretenders on New England’s journey to contend for yet another AFC East title, AFC Championship and Super Bowl crown, all of which they have been favored to do since before the start of this season.

Our Preview’s New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Predictions & Betting Picks Conclusion

The history of the Patriots and Bills is one-sided and while their records are even now, things still feel very much in favor of New England. The Patriots are just behind the Baltimore Ravens for most points per game at 35.3. The Bills are just 17th in that category, averaging 22 points a game. In the area of passing yards per game, Brady continues to be an ageless wonder, leading New England to a league-second-best mark of 311.3 yards per game. His 23-year-old counterpart and opponent on Sunday in Allen, is leading just the 19th ranked passing offense, averaging 240 yards per game.

That’s just one of the factors as to why the Patriots are heavy favorites in the betting odds with those sportsbooks. Also as mentioned earlier in this preview, Brady is a better Buffalo QB than Buffalo QBs have been. So you can essentially throw home field advantage out the window when the Patriots come to town. It’s week four of the NFL season meaning teams are going to begin to separate themselves from the pack. By the end of Sunday’s game, New England will have done this as far as the AFC East goes. I think you know where we are going with our New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills predictions:

  • The wager is to take the Patriots -7pts @ best available betting odds of -101 with Bookmaker. It is -104 with BetOnline and -105 with Intertops for the same points spread, while Bovada is -7.5pts @ -110. This preview expects an easy cover of that spread against the Bills.
  • As for those total points, it could go higher than the bookies project. The second of our picks is to bet over 41.5pts @ -110 with Bovada or BetOnline. The other firms are over 42pts for the same odds.