Pro Am events are not for everyone: The celebrity sideshow can often detract from the serious golf on display but from a betting point of view, we should be taking the Pebble Beach Pro Am 2020 seriously.
There is a strong field descending on three courses in California with one or two notable golfers teeing it up for the first time in the US this year.
In this preview we will focus on the pros and who will finish as the outright winner on Sunday, concluding with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am betting prediction. Our tip for the win at the Phoenix Open, Justin Thomas, came home in a creditable third but we need some winners now as we go west.
Former World Number One Dustin Johnson (+600 or 6/1 with Bovada Sports Bookmaker) is making his way back from injury and he slots straight in as the clear favorite. DJ took part in the Saudi International last week and finished in a solo second, so his form is encouraging and he has a good record in the Pebble Beach Pro Am.
In fact, Johnson is second on the all-time money earners list behind Phil Mickelson. He has won the tournament twice – in 2009 and 2010 – and with a number of high-profile absentees, DJ is an obvious favorite.
A gap of several points exists between Dustin Johnson and second favorite Patrick Cantlay (10/1). Moving through the chasers, we have Paul Casey, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker all at around 20/1 and then we come to the defending champion Phil Mickelson (25/1). Casey and Day are recent runners up with the English golfer finishing three strokes behind Mickelson twelve months ago. Snedeker, like Dustin Johnson, is a two-time Pebble Beach Pro Am champion while Lefty Mickelson heads the money earners list with no fewer than five wins.
If you are wondering why Cantlay is second favorite among that bunch, we’re not entirely sure but his recent form is sound and he has recorded 12 top 15 finishes in the last year.
Others to mention in the chasing pack include Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matt Kuchar and Viktor Hovland.
Former US Open Champion Graeme McDowell (33/1) rolled back the years on Sunday as he claimed the Saudi International. It has been a year of comebacks on the European Tour with Lee Westwood also winning but can 40-year-old McDowell compete in California? He kicks off the list of outsiders and it is worth remembering that his 2010 Major success came at the Pebble Beach Course.
Jordan Spieth and Daniel Berger come in at similar prices to McDowell while other interesting names include Max Homa, JB Holmes, Scott Piercy and Kevin Kisner. We may be missing some star names this week but there is plenty of depth to the field and we could be looking at a high-priced winner.
Our Preview’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict
The nature of the event means that we have three courses in play to cater for the celebrities and an increased field overall. The Pebble Beach Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club are our hosts and they all offer different challenges.
Each venue comes in at under 7,000 yards so the distance hitters won’t necessarily find an advantage. The toughest test is usually offered by Spyglass which is tree lined in most places and is fiendish in dishing out punishment for inaccuracy. Pebble Beach tends to be the shortest course on Tour but postage stamp greens also mean that accuracy will be favored over length.
Greens in regulation tend to be the key stat while form with the flatstick will usually decide the outcome.
Phil Mickelson claimed his fifth Pebble Beach Pro Am last year and Lefty is one of four multiple winners this century. Most notably, Vijay Singh’s victory in 2004 is the only win from outside the US since Brett Ogle in 1993.
Taking all of this into account and looking at a marginally weaker field, it is clear to see why Dustin Johnson is so far ahead of the field. We don’t like to pick short prices so we will avoid DJ but behind the market leader, it’s something of a lottery.
It may be a week to look at the top 10 finish markets but, if pushed to name a winner from the mid-range bunch, this preview would argue the case for Jason Day. The Australian has hinted at a return to his best form in recent months and, his impressive record at Pebble Beach sees Day in second place in the Power Rankings ahead of Thursday.
So the first of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am predictions is Day for the win. The Top Ten bets here could also provide good value in California this week: