It is the second major of the golfing year and the 2023 PGA Championship has naturally attracted the majority of the world’s top players. With a number of stars crossing from the rebel LIV tour, we have a seriously strong contingent in place.
The venue for this event constantly rotates and, in 2023, we’re heading to the Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York. The PGA Championship was last here in 2013 when Jason Dufner claimed the trophy by two shots from Jim Furyk.
The majority of the world’s top 20 players have been resting up in the weeks leading up to this tournament, but will that be a positive factor over the course of the four days? This preview aims to unravel the conundrum before deciding on our betting predictions and picks.
The markets are in place for the majors across the majority of the calendar year and, ahead of Thursday’s first tee time, most stateside-facing sportsbooks have listed two joint-favorites. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are both quoted at odds of 8/1 in many places.
Scheffler was the only top golfer in action at the Byron Nelson last week, and he finished in a tie for fifth after starting as the red-hot favorite. He leads the Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and that could be a key stat this week. Rahm leads the way in many more stats including Adjusted Scoring and the all-round ranking. He has also claimed no fewer than four wins in 2023, including victory at the Masters.
A gap opens behind the two joint-favorites to Rory McIlroy who is listed at best industry odds of 12/1. The Northern Irishman has enjoyed a positive season overall, but a mixed run of more recent form includes a missed cut at the US Masters last month. Rory is a former PGA Champion, as is Brooks Koepka who won back-to-back tournaments in 2018 and 2019. Temporarily crossing back from LIV golf, Koepka is available this week at a best of 22/1.
Also available at that top price of 22/1 are Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and the defending US PGA Champion Justin Thomas. JT mounted a brilliant comeback on the final day to eventually beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff at Southern Hills last year.
Moving through, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson can all be found at 25/1 in places. Jason Day rolled back the years to claim his first Tour win since 2018 and that rediscovered form makes him a genuine contender. Tony Finau is also a recent PGA Tour champion, while Dustin Johnson was a runner-up in this event in 2019 and 2020.
Other members of this section of the bookies’ PGA betting lines to consider include Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young at 33/1, plus Cameron Smith and Sungjae Im at 35/1. Fitzpatrick will soon defend his US Open title and he should gain confidence from his recent win at Harbour Town.
Max Homa is too good a golfer to be regularly considered as an outsider, but he is at relatively long best odds in this field at 40/1. He will have some support at that figure, but he has only landed one top 35 finish in the Majors in 13 starts.
Also available at 40/1 is Jordan Spieth, while Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama are further back at 45/1. Hatton has found some form on the PGA Tour and he was another player to finish in a tie for fifth on Sunday.
Elsewhere, Tommy Fleetwood and Rickie Fowler are both quoted at 70/1 in places, and they are considered by this PGA preview to be among the best underdogs this week. Fowler is finding some touch, with eight top 20 finishes in his last nine starts, while Fleetwood has five top five finishes in majors.
From a very long set of potential outsiders, we’ll just mention a few more names. Adam Scott and Shane Lowry are at 80/1, Patrick Reed and Gary Woodland are at 100/1, Keegan Bradley is at 110/1, Justin Rose is at 125/1 and Matt Kuchar is 150/1. They could make a challenge for the top 10, but the 2023 PGA Championship winner should come from a much shorter price.
Our Betting Preview’s PGA Championship Predictions Verdict with Picks
The East Course at the Oak Hill Country Club is hosting the PGA Championship for the third time. The most recent edition to take place here was in 2013, so there will be a handful of golfers in the field with previous experience of this venue. Previously, Oak Hill also hosted three US Opens, but the last of these was in 1989.
The course is one of the longest par 70s around and it will measure a fraction under 7,400 yards in 2023. There will be some value for the power hitters, but Driving Distance may not be the key stat this week. Greens in Regulation may be the most vital quality to have over the four days.
There is plenty of punishing rough in play and it will be important to keep the ball on the fairway. Scoring is unlikely to be low and Jason Dufner’s winning total of 10 under par here was a record for Oak Hill in a major.
In 2023, while he may not be the most popular champion, we suspect that Brooks Koepka has a great chance of making it to three wins in this tournament. It is hard to assess any stats built up on the LIV Tour, but his showing in the US Masters suggests he can still win Majors.
Koepka has the game for this course and he is our main pick, along with three other top 10 selections who will hopefully make it a profitable week. So these are our PGA Championship predictions and betting picks for our preview of this week’s 2023 renewal:
- Brooks Koepka to win at +2200 (22/1) with BetOnline. He is shorter at +1800 (18/1) with Bovada and EveryGame.
- Top 10 Betting Picks (best odds in brackets): Brooks Koepka (+340 BetOnline), Collin Morikawa (+300 EveryGame), Tommy Fleetwood (+550 BetOnline), Patrick Reed (+700 BetOnline).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.