After suffering what was an agonizing defeat last time out, the New York Red Bulls will look to bounce back on Saturday (7pm ET; TV: Live on CBS), though to do so they’ll need to get the better of an in-form FC Dallas side. Can the hosts get the desired result at Red Bull Arena? This MLS matchup preview, with its betting predictions and picks aims to find out.
There’s been an element of unpredictability to the way the Red Bulls have started the 2022 campaign, though they’ve still picked up a handful of pleasing results, results that have left Saturday’s hosts sitting in third position in the Eastern Conference. They did lose last time out, despite holding a one-goal lead after 70 minutes, but their defeat was a narrow one, while they beat the New England Revolution prior to that, so Gerhard Struber’s men should remain upbeat.
As for FC Dallas, well, the visitors should arrive at Red Bull Arena with their tails up following what was a solid win against the Colorado Rapids, who finished the regular season in first position in the Western Conference last time out. Not only did they get the job done last weekend, but they’ve now gone four games without tasting defeat, three of which they’ve won.
Under pressure at home
On their travels, NYRB have been strong this season, winning three out of three, and other than the first of those three games, which could’ve gone either way, they’ve done so deservedly. Unfortunately, it’s been a different story at home, with Struber’s men remaining winless in their own backyard, losing to both Minnesota and Montreal and tying with the Columbus Crew.
Offensively, they’ve performed OK from a creativity point of view, averaging 1.76 expected goals for, but they’ve struggled in terms of end product, scoring just twice. At the other end, they’ve not exactly kept teams quiet, conceding four goals, keeping zero clean sheets, shipping an average of 1.63 xG.
The Dallas boys have made a positive start to the campaign, there can be no getting away from that, though their relative success can be largely attributed to strong home form. Fortunately for them, four of their opening six fixtures have come in front of a home crowd, where they’ve won three and drawn one, posting some encouraging underlying numbers in the process.
It’s been a slightly different story on the road. Two away fixtures have yielded zero wins, one loss and one tie. Moreover, they’re yet to score a goal away from the comforts of Toyota Stadium. Not only have Nico Estévez’s men failed to score on their travels, but they’ve also not exactly created much either, creating 0.8 expected goals in New England and only 0.3 in Chicago, while across those two fixtures, Saturday’s visitors managed just one shot on target, so it’s probably fair to say that they when the travel, they need more from the likes of Jesus Ferreira, who has netted five times at home this term.
Recent head-to-head record
Wins against RBNY are something of a rare commodity for the FC Dallas boys, who’ve won just one of their last eight renewals of this fixture, though both teams have made changes since the pair last faced off in cross-conference action back in 2019. On that occasion, it was the Red Bulls who came out on top by three goals to one.
When the visitors last made the trip to Red Bull Arena, they walked away with all three points, thanks to a 1-2 victory in 2019. Interestingly, this fixture has been played four times since 2017, and in each of those four renewals, at least three goals have been scored, with four or more being scored in three. Both teams have scored in three of those four. For those interested in head-to-head trends, recent history points towards goals.
RBNY vs FCDallas: What’s the best bet?
It is the hosts who approach this fixture at red-hot favourites at odds of -133, though such a price doesn’t seem fitting and certainly doesn’t appeal as bet worthy. The visitors on the other hand are entirely difficult to support at much larger odds. Sure, they’ve not exactly thrived on the road, delivering two weak attacking efforts, but let’s be real, they’ve not given much away either, while they come into this fixture off the back of four reasonably solid defensive efforts, conceding just two goals and surrendering an average of just 0.82 expected goals. In their last four, the Red Bulls have given up an average of 1.47 expected goals, conceding four goals and keeping just one clean sheet. Add this to the problems they’ve had when it comes to converting opportunities into soccer’s hard currency of goals and it’s not at all difficult to take the visitors +1 on the spread.
A secondary option is ‘Under 2.5 Goals’. After all, neither side has thrived offensively in their respective home and away games, with NYRB scoring just two in three at home, and FC Dallas scoring none in two on the road. Four of those five matches ended with less than three goals being scored too, so odds of -115 on a relatively low-scoring encounter unfolding at Red Bull Arena look viable. These are the betting predictions and picks for this RBNY vs Dallas FC MLS preview: