Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Preview, Picks, Betting Predictions: Home Win & Goals

Raul RuidiazAs they attempt to dominate the Major League Soccer’s Western Conference, the Seattle Sounders will take on their old enemy Portland Timbers at Lumen Field on this evening (10.30pm ET Sunday; Live on TV: ESPN, ESPN Deportes, MLS LIVE on DAZN).

Can the hosts pick up yet another win? Or will the visitors put a stop to the impressive winning run of the hosts? Read on for our Sounders vs Timbers preview & betting picks.

Things continue to go well for the Sounders, who arrive here off the back of yet another victory, as they beat current MLS Cup holders Columbus Crew by two goals to one away from home, despite trailing with less than five minutes remaining on the clock. That comeback victory was the perfect example of the winning mentality that has been instilled in the Sounders by long-serving head coach Brian Schmetzer. Today’s hosts have now won four straight and are now top of the Western Conference as a result.

Unlike their hosts today, the Timbers have been treading water somewhat, winning just one of their last five, losing somewhat disappointingly at Austin last time out, conceding three goals in the process. Like Seattle, Portland is generally considered one of the big clubs in the west, but Giovanni Savarese’s men haven’t shown it this season. They’re currently eighth in the west, 18 points behind leaders Seattle.

Strong at home

In terms of points accumulated, Seattle has the joint-best home record in the west, having picked up 19 points, winning five, tying four and losing just two. They are somewhat surprisingly without a win in three at home, but only in one of those did they perform badly. They have scored twice as many as they have conceded at home this term, notching 18 and conceding nine, while they have an average expected goal difference of +0.65. Only SKC and LAFC have done better in terms of xG at home than Seattle in the Western Conference.

Weak on the road

While the hosts have been useful at home, the Portland Timbers have found it tough to get going on their travels. They have won just one of their ten travelling fixtures, losing seven of the other nine. Ten goals for in ten games isn’t great but it’s not terrible away from home, especially as only five out of 13 Western Conference teams have scored more than 11 on the road this season. However, 24 goals conceded in ten games is awful. Unsurprisingly, the Timbers have the worst defensive record on the road in the west, while only one team has performed worse than them in terms of expected goals against. Away from the comforts of Providence Park, Savarese’s men have leaked chances all over the place, surrendering an average of 1.95 expected goals per 90 minutes. It’s easy to see why they’ve conceded so many.

Familiar enemies

The Sounders and the Timbers have been locking horns for years, with varied results, but this year they have already seen plenty of each other. Today’s showdown will be the third renewal of this fixture since the start of the campaign. Back in May, Sunday’s hosts returned from Providence Park with all three points after winning by two goals to one, while they ran riot at that venue less than three weeks ago, scoring no less than six goals on route to a convincing victory. It is fair to say that it is the Sounders who have had by far the best of this contest in recent times, so it is easy to envisage them thriving on their own patch here.

Hosts hard to oppose

Everything comes to an end sooner or later, so Seattle can’t continue winning forever, but in their current form, and given their efforts against Portland already this season, this fixture must be viewed as a fantastic opportunity for them to put another valuable three points on the board.

Punters can profit by having a few dollars on ‘Seattle to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ with the American online sportsbooks. The contrast between the efforts of the Sounders at home and the efforts of the Timbers on the road are there for all to see. Seattle averages 1.23 points more per home game than Portland away from home, while their goal difference of +7.2 beats an away goal difference of -8.4 out of sight. Moreover, the home average xG difference of Seattle, which stands at +0.65, holds up very well against Portland’s average expected goal of -0.84 away from home.

If we also consider the attacking quality of the hosts, and how the likes of Raúl Ruidíaz, who has three goals in two games against Sunday’s opposition this season, terrorized the Portland defense earlier this month, then a cluster of home goals en route to success seems more than likely. Especially when we account for the fact that the visitors have not only shipped eight goals in two games against Seattle this season but have conceded two or more in seven out of ten away from home.

  • Seattle Sounders to win & over 1.5 goals @ -115 with Bovada. It is -120 with Intertops.