It is the Super Bowl LV on Sunday in case you hadn’t noticed as Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on last year’s heroes Kansas City Chiefs in Florida (6.30pm ET; TV: Live on CBS).
What USA Betting is going to concentrate on in this Super Bowl 55 preview is the pick of the myriad of prop bets that are offered by the sportsbooks on the big game.
First Sack Of The Game
One prop that I think has good value is the first team to record a sack. I think the pass rush will give the Chiefs fits and there is a high likelihood that the Bucs will record the first sack of the game with how often I expect the Chiefs to pass the ball.
The Buccaneers ranked number one in rush defensive DVOA and should force the Chiefs to beat them solely through the air. The Bucs should get even more of a boost against the run with defensive tackle Vita Vea set to play in his first game since October. Vea had 10 total tackles in the five games he played in the regular season. The Chiefs certainly have enough offensive weapons to air it out and should make this game quite interesting.
- Take the Buccaneers at -125 with BetOnline to record the first sack of the game.
Total Sacks Over
Another prop to look at is total sacks over 4.5. I think that the Buccaneers could easily have four sacks themselves and I expect the Chiefs to have at least one if not two sacks on the immobile Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes seems to hold onto the ball longer than most other quarterbacks, with him always trying to make a play downfield.
- Play over 4.5 sacks at +140 with a little sprinkle on over 5.5 sacks at +225. Both numbers are currently with BetOnline.
Mahomes Rushing Attempts
I think another prop that could be worth looking into is Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts. The pressure could force Mahomes to pull the ball down and scramble to get outside the pocket and he may run the ball more than usual.
Last week against the Bills he had five attempts. In six of his 15 regular season games he had five or more rushing attempts and in four other games he was one short and finished with four attempts. The high-pressure rate of the Buccaneers throughout the game should give this a great chance of hitting.
- Bet Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts at -135 with BetOnline.
First Quarter Under 10 Points
Tom Brady has historically started Super Bowls incredibly slow. I am counting on him to do so once again. If you look at his previous nine Super Bowl appearances only one of those games had 10 or more points scored in the first quarter. The two teams have combined for nine or more points in only two of those nine Super Bowls and five have been tied 0-0 after one
The pressure and nerves could make for a closer start to the game. I expect both teams to be nervous, which could lead to a mistake or two and more field goals once they enter the red zone. If the first quarter is as low scoring as I expect, I will then be playing the over live, which should be significantly lower than the current total of 56.5 points. So this prop bet pick is:
- First quarter under 10 points (+100) with BetOnline.
How Many Times Will “Patriots” Be Said
I love this prop. This is one of those fun ones where you will have to be glued to your TV listening for “Patriots.” It only makes sense that this will come up numerous times throughout the broadcast. Tom Brady spent his entire career in New England and took the team to nine Super Bowls.
How can they not mention his previous success with the “Patriots” several times? I think at the very worst this is a push with it being said two times, but that this will likely be said at least five plus times. This honestly feels like one of those too good to be true sort of props. I will take my chances on this being said at the very least three times and I feel like -110 is generous.
- How many times will “Patriots” be said over 2 (-110) with BetOnline.
Darrel Williams Under 2 Receptions
The emergence of rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the addition of veteran running back Le’Veon Bell has left Darrel Williams looking for opportunities in several games.
The last three games that Edwards-Helaire played (week 14, week 15, and the AFC Championship game) we have seen Williams’ production fall off a cliff. In week 14 Williams had 0 receptions on 0 targets, in week 15 he had 0 receptions on 0 targets, and in the AFC Championship game he had one reception on one target. Fellow running back Bell is currently questionable, but I expect he will be able to play. This will even further limit the opportunities for Williams to catch the ball out of the backfield.
- Darrel Williams under 2 receptions (-114) with BetOnline.
Scotty Miller Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
The Buccaneers’ wide receiver has the speed to this cover number with one reception alone. He did just that against both the Saints and the Packers in the playoffs. Against New Orleans he had one reception for 29 yards and against the Packers he had a 39-yard touchdown reception before halftime that seemed to open the game up in the Bucs’ favor. I think with all of the focus on fellow wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown that Miller will get drastically less attention and will be able to slip out for a deep reception to cover this. I think he will comfortably go over this number and have closer to 50 yards in the air. So the last of our Super Bowl prop bets is:
- Scotty Miller over 20.5 yards receiving yards with BetOnline.
Alex Uplinger is a sports betting analyst, writer, podcast producer and an expert on NFL and college basketball. As well as his football previews for USA Betting, Alex produces and co-hosts an NFL show for Full Slate and a sports betting podcast on the Blue Wire Network.