Everyone wants to know the result. No, I don’t mean who wins the Super Bowl, but rather the outcome of the litany of alternative prop bets available on Super Bowl 50. Eager not to disappoint, here are my prop bet picks.
We’ve already wrapped up the outcome of the big game in our Super Bowl picks preview article, so to the serious stuff. It starts with the opening coin toss and ends with the color of the sports drink that will be poured on the winning coach at the conclusion of the game. I’m not kidding, that is an actual prop bet and currently, yellow and green are the frontrunners. Not to mention all of the bets involving the halftime show.
Prop bets like these are fun and completely random so there’s no real way to offer any advice as to how to go, although there is an expression: “Tails never fails.” So, there’s something to consider. But for the purposes of advising some betting picks, let’s stick to the props that I can back up with statistics and solid information about the teams and players.
Denver’s Total Team Points
Take the over on 19.5. Denver isn’t as prolific as they have been in the past and they haven’t exactly had the best success in recent Super Bowl appearances. But less than 20 points for a team led by Peyton Manning? Even in an off year such as this one that’s still a highly improbable proposition.
Carolina’s Total Team Points
Take the over on 24.5. Guess what team finished the regular season with the most points per game? Go on guess. Okay, I’ll tell you, it’s Carolina. The Panthers were one of only two teams to average over 30 points per game, coming in at 31.3. But let’s play that game again. Guess what team finished the regular season with the fourth fewest points allowed per game. You know where this is going. It’s Denver, coming in at 18.5. So, let’s split the difference and you’ve got right around the 24.5 that the line is set at. It’s that half a point that’s going to be the difference maker.
Team to Score First in the Game
Take the Panthers at -145. If the Panthers get the ball first, they will be on the board. They are still riding an incredible wave and while the two-week layoff could hurt them, I still think this team is young, this team is energized and they are eager. Carolina has not yet won a Super Bowl so this is going to be a big moment for them. Not to mention, they are led by the guy who is most likely to be coming off of the MVP, which is awarded the night prior to the big game.
Team to Score Last in the Game
Take the Panthers at -125. There is simple logic on this one. I think the team that scores last is going to win and I’ve got the Panthers coming out victorious and covering the sportsbooks’ five to six point spread which favors them.
Result of First Offensive Play of the Game
Really, this is a prop bet? Okay well, if the Panthers win the coin toss and have the ball for the first play, its going to be a rush attempt (no 1st down) at +125. If Denver opens with the ball, pass attempt (no 1st down) +200. Yep, so put your money on the team you think will win the coin toss which honestly, is 50-50.
Total Points Scored in the Game
Take 51-60 at +325. The total set for the game is 45. Yeah, I think we’ll see the over on that, especially since Carolina was the highest scoring offense in the regular season and has been averaging 40 points a game in this postseason.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Ah yes, now to the prop bet that most people are looking forward to, that being who might win the Super Bowl MVP.
Here are the top six players:
- Cam Newton (CAR, pictured above): -125
- Peyton Manning (DEN) +290
- Luke Kuechly (CAR) +1200
- Von Miller (DEN) +1200
- CJ Anderson (DEN) +1600
- Ted Ginn Jr. (CAR) +1600
It’s no surprise to see the two quarterbacks topping the list. Of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPS awarded, only three of them have gone to non- signal callers. Only once, has it gone to a defensive player which makes the case for Luke Kuechly and Von Miller interesting. The same goes for CJ Anderson who would be the first running back to take home the award since Super Bowl XXXII. Two wide receivers in the past 10 years, both of whom played for the Pittsburgh Steelers, took home the award. Ted Ginn would be the third.
But at the end of the day, this is really a two horse race no matter how you look at it. Defensive players have a tough time winning the award unless they do something noteworthy. Quarterbacks on the other hand, the game is in their hands quite literally. They are almost always the favorites.
If the Panthers win, it will be because Cam Newton had a good day. If the Broncos win, it’s likely more a result of their defense but given the picture perfect scripted story to this one, I can’t see a scenario where a Denver win doesn’t result in a Manning MVP.
Since I’m picking the Panthers however, the smart money is on the favorite. It’s on Newton. He’ll likely enter this game as the NFL MVP and winning the SB honors on top of that would be a nice story in and of itself. It is testament to the season he had and how he managed to come back into the team’s good graces. This was Newton’s year to prove himself worthy of the number one draft pick and he certainly made good on that. He can be Super Bowl MVP.