Following an entertaining break in the schedule which saw Scottie Scheffler win the Dell WGC Matchplay on Sunday, the PGA Tour returns to regular tournament play. The Valero Texas Open has been a part of the circuit since 1922 and there is plenty of buzz around this week’s 2022 event as it reaches its centenary.
Last year’s edition saw Jordan Spieth win his first tournament for nearly five years and he’s back to defend his title in a mixed field.
We scored a nice return last week with the USA-facing sportsbooks after backing Scheffler to reach the final of the Matchplay. It would have been a bigger profit if we’d taken the new World Number One in the outright winner market, but it maintains a good run of success so let’s see if we can keep it going with this preview and its predictions.
Rory McIlroy signs up for this tournament for the first time since 2013 and he starts as the clear favorite at best industry odds of 10/1. When he was last here, Rory finished as a solo runner up to Martin Laird and he has been in good form since the start of the year.
Jordan Spieth won the Texas Open by two strokes from Charley Hoffman 12 months ago and he slots in as second favorite at a general 14/1. Spieth’s form was consistent for the remainder of 2021 but has dipped since the beginning of the new season. However, a runners up slot behind Jimmy Walker in 2015 helps to show that this is one of his preferred tournaments.
Behind the top two, another former Valero Texas Open starts as third favorite this week. Corey Conners won at TPC San Antonio in 2019 and he leads the chasers at a top price of 18/1. The Canadian is also in good touch having made it through to the semi finals of the WGC Matchplay last weekend.
Hideki Matsuyama and Abraham Ancer follow at 20/1 while this week’s tournament marks the return to action of Bryson DeChambeau. Injury forced The Scientist into two late withdrawals recently but he’s back and available at a tempting 25/1 in most places.
Moving through the chasers, Gary Woodland and Si Woo Kim can both be found at 30/1 while Chris Kirk, Maverick McNealy, Tony Finau and Adam Hadwin are all available at 33/1. Within those names, there should be options for Top Ten Finish picks at the very least.
Both Kirk and Hadwin are in good touch with some Top Tens in recent weeks and Kirk has a solid record here with three single digit finishes and a tie for 13th.
Jason Day kicks off the outside pack this week with most sportsbooks offering 40/1 on the Australian. Keegan Bradley and Jhonattan Vegas are further back at 45/1 while Mito Pereira and Luke List can be claimed at 50/1.
One man that should attract interest is Charley Hoffman who is way down at 80/1. Hoffman was the runner up in the two previous editions of the Texas Open and was Champion here back in 2016. He has made the cut in all of his 11 visits to this tournament and is another man to consider in those top ten markets.
Other names of note in this section include Rickie Fowler at 66/1, Ryan Palmer at 70/1, Matt Kuchar at 90/1 and Russell Knox at 100/1. Clearly there are a number of big names resting up ahead of the Masters but there is some depth to the field going into Thursday’s first tee time.
Valero Texas Open Course and Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is the venue this week. There is some considerable distance in play at 7.435 yards and this par 72 location will provide some assistance for the power hitters. It has been the permanent host of the Texas Open since 2010 so the current field should be very familiar with the challenges here.
Not all courses on the PGA Tour will punish wayward drives but this is an exception. Par-5 scoring is an important stat in this event but it needs to be met with accuracy so we should also be considering figures for Greens in Regulation.
The tournament began way back in 1922 with Bob MacDonald taking the trophy. One interesting trend to note is that multiple winners of the Texas Open are rare. In 99 years of this competition, only two men – Arnold Palmer and Justin Leonard – have won the trophy three times.
Seven golfers have won twice with Zach Johnson the last man to complete the double in 2009. The indicators aren’t, therefore, too encouraging for Jordan Spieth as he looks for a successful defense.
It is a tough call but those long odds next to the name of Bryson DeChambeau are proving to be too good to ignore. We know that he has the distance and his accuracy is better than many believe. Form is the issue, following his injury layoff, but Bryson will be back to his best before too long.
Three additional top 10 finish picks look solid in terms of form and previous records in this event so let’s look to these four golfers to extend our winning run. These are our Valero Texas Open predictions and picks for this golf preview:
- Bryson DeChambeau to win at +2500 (25/1) with Bovada and BetOnline.
- Top 10 Finish Picks (all odds from BetOnline, who are longest odds on all these players): DeChambeau (+320), Chris Kirk (+350), Adam Hadwin (+400) and Charley Hoffman (+650).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.