Following the entertaining diversion offered by the WGC Match Play, it’s back to tournament golf. We’re just one week away from the Masters and that means we have a mixed field coming into the Valero Texas Open 2021.
Many of the world’s best choose to sit this one out as they look for rest and recuperation while others are more concerned about finding some form on the course. As a result, there’s a real mix of odds but the withdrawal of the world number one has left it tight at the top.
Not for the first time, Dustin Johnson has withdrawn on the eve of a tournament. The World Number One had been a clear market leader at the start of the week but his absence makes Jordan Spieth a new favorite. Spieth was a runner up here to Jimmy Walker in 2015 and he is listed at a general 12/1. Spieth is climbing back up the rankings after a promising return to form but that figure is a little too short for interest this time.
Next up are Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler who are both quoted at 14/1 while Hideki Matsuyama is slightly further back at 20/1. Scheffler comes into Thursday as the beaten finalist from last week’s WGC Dell Match Play. Form is, therefore, in place, but he needs to react positively to disappointment and a narrow defeat to Billy Horschel.
Finau is certainly one to watch although the stunning form shown at the start of the year has deserted him for the moment. He tied for third in the Texas Open in 2017 and his impressive Tour stats for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, could be important this week.
It remains tight in the Valero Texas Open betting with Abraham Ancer at 22/1 followed by defending champion Corey Conners at 25/1. Ancer is attracting interest in a field where the big players are taken out of the equation. Canadian Conners is back after edging out Charley Hoffman by two strokes when this tournament was last played in 2019.
Speaking of Hoffman, he is the leading money earner in this tournament and will be a tempter for many at a best of 30/1. He has claimed two runner-up slots in the Texas Open and was Champion here in 2016.
Moving through, Si Woo Kim is also at 30/1, followed by Chris Kirk and Brendan Steele at 40/1. Kirk could certainly be one to watch this week due to solid recent form and a pair of eighth-placed finishes on this week’s course.
Valero Texas Open Outsiders To Consider
This type of field can often produce a long-odds winner and there will be some eyes on two-time Texas Open Champion Zach Johnson. 50/1 is the best available price for the veteran who won here in 2008 and 2009.
Sam Burns is also at 50/1 in places while Lanto Griffin, Keegan Bradley and Matt Kuchar are all quoted at 55/1. Following his third-place finish at the Match Play on Sunday, there has been reported interest in Kuchar who has made the cut in all eight visits to TPC San Antonio. He is in fourth position in this week’s Power Rankings and ‘Kuch’ has to be a contender for a single digit finish at least.
Other players worthy of a second look in the outside bunch include Adam Hadwin at 70/1, Ryan Moore at 75/1 and Rickie Fowler at 80/1.
Our Preview’s Texas Open Course & Betting Trends with Picks & Predictions Verdict
The history of the Texas Open dates all the way back to 1922 when Bob MacDonald won the inaugural edition. A number of subtle name changes have followed and local sponsors Valero have been involved since 2002.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is the venue and this is a par 72 with considerable length at over 7,400 yards. Strong winds are a constant feature while tight fairways mean there has to be a balance between power and accuracy. Undulating greens which rank above 11 on the Stimpmeter mean that the winner will have to deliver good all-round statistics.
Multiple winners are rare in this event: Back in the early 1960s, the great Arnold Palmer won the Texas Open in three consecutive years but the only other man to complete any form of treble is Justin Leonard. Seven golfers have won the tournament twice and the most recent man to claim the double was Zach Johnson in 2009.
Our tip for the top is Tony Finau who carries a good price towards the head of the markets. He has brought touch to his game in recent months and is no longer known purely for his power off the tee. Form isn’t quite there but, with the bigger names missing from the field, this is the perfect event for Finau to come through and claim an overdue trophy. So the predictions for this Valero Texas Open preview are:
- Tony Finau to win @ +1500 (15/1) with Bookmaker. He is +1400 (14/1) with BetOnline and +1200 with Bovada and Intertops.
- Bet on Finau (+135), Matt Kuchar (+450), Abraham Ancer (+225) and Charley Hoffman (+325) for top 10 finishes. All those odds are with BetOnline sportsbook. Bovada is also offering top 10 betting lines, but is shorter on all those selections.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.