A disrupted PGA Tour season comes to its climax this weekend with the annual running of the Tour Championship. Dustin Johnson leads the race for the FedEx Cup following his second-place finish on Sunday but he faces a tough challenge from this slimmed down field of 30.
Adjusted scoring comes into play in terms of the FedEx Cup winner but will that make the top seeds certainties to take the trophy? Johnson takes that top seeding on the back of his recent performances but, that’s not necessarily a guarantee of success.
FedEx leader Dustin Johnson heads up the outright market at a best price of +200 (2/1) with Bovada. DJ came so close to making it two wins from two as he was edged out by Jon Rahm in Sunday’s playoff. He has yet to win this event and the top seeds rarely succeed but he is very much the form golfer coming into Thursday.
Rahm is second favorite at 3/1 despite having the greater momentum. With two wins in the last six weeks and his world number one ranking intact, the Spaniard will attract some interest at those odds.
Justin Thomas was our pick last week but he failed to make an impression over four rounds. JT tied for third here last year, following his runners up slot in 2017 and, despite a dip in form, that record on this course means that we’re interested again.
Webb Simpson returns having sat out the BMW Championship last weekend and he is fourth favorite at 12/1. He only lost one stroke in his absence and has three top fives in seven starts on this course.
Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau can both be picked up at 22/1 in places with the chief American oddssetters while last year’s winner Rory McIlroy is at similar odds. McIlroy remained in touch last week while the scores stayed around par but he will have to improve in order to defend the trophy.
Then come Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama at around 28/1. Matsuyama was an early leader at the BMW Championship before finishing in a tie for third and it is worth noting that he has recorded three top 10 finishes in the last four editions of the Tour Championship.
Once again, a smaller field means that we have no cut after two rounds so all players will remain in contention for the entire four days. With only 30 players involved, it will be difficult to find any long odds value but there are some outsiders to consider for our Tour Championship predictions.
Tony Finau’s power from the tee may find some reward and his odds of around 50/1 will catch the eye of some bettors looking for value picks. Harris English and Patrick Reed can also be claimed at 50/1 in places before we move out to Scottie Scheffler at an average of around 80/1.
Scheffler has enjoyed an outstanding rookie season and looks a certainty for the Arnold Palmer award and could be one of the more tempting outside bets. While we can’t mention every name on the list, there could be a case for backing Brendon Todd, Viktor Hovland and Billy Horschel.
Our Preview’s 2020 Tour Championship Predictions & Betting Picks with Course & Trends Verdict
The East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia has hosted the Tour Championship continuously since 2004 and it should be very familiar to everyone in this field. It is just a par 70 but there is some reasonable length at over 7,300 yards and there is some clear benefit to the power hitters in places.
The 18th is a par 5 at 590 yards and the 5s are among the easiest on Tour so this is where players have the perfect opportunity to pick up shots. Greens are wider than average but they are fast with 13 on the Stimp a likely starting point.
As for winning statistics, last year’s Champion Rory McIlroy led the field in strokes gained: off the tee and strokes gained: tee to green. He also ranked highly for fairways hit and greens in regulation.
Aside from the nature of the course, we have another interesting stat for this week. In the previous ten editions of the Tour Championship, the top seed hasn’t gone on to win. That could be bad news for Dustin Johnson backers and it suggests that it may simply be too hard to maintain momentum across all of the FedEx playoffs.
While we saw little encouragement last time out, USAbetting is going back to our previous pick of Justin Thomas for the win. He does need a lift in form but he has those relevant stats and can deliver with a small improvement.
There may not be too much value in props but we have listed three others players to add to your betslip for a top 5 finish. In summary, our Tour Championship predictions and picks for this golf preview are:
- Justin Thomas to win @ best odds of +600 with Bovada or Bookmaker.
- For Top 5 Finish Spots: JT (best odds are -135 BetOnline), Brendon Todd (+1200 BetOnline), Scottie Scheffler (+700 Bovada, BetOnline) and Harris English (+450 Bovada, BetOnline).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.