While we have focused on the PGA Tour for much of 2018, the world’s best golfers continue to take an extended break following the Masters so we are switching back to Europe and the Trophee Hassan II.
The field is slightly weakened here too with our most recent Tour winner, Jon Rahm, absent from the declaration but there are plenty of golfers showing good form coming into Thursday and we think this offers our best chance of finding some value.
Paul Dunne (+1200 favorite with Bovada) led for much of the week over in Spain and his eventual runners up position saw him take a significant jump in World Rankings. The Irishman also starts as favorite this week and he finished second in this event last year, eventually losing out in a playoff to Edoardo Molinari.
Form, rankings and previous history in this event make Dunne an obvious favorite while just behind are Joost Luiten (+1600) and George Coetzee (+1800) who can be found at similar Trophee Hassan win odds with the American-facing bookmakers. Both men are winners in 2018 with Coetzee taking out the Tshwane Open and Luiten tasting victory at the NBO Oman but the former has been more consistent overall with a number of Top Ten finishes in Europe.
Following on from the top three, Thomas Pieters and Alexander Levy (both +2000) are in mid-price range and could offer threats this week but the first set of odds that really interest us belong to Pablo Larrazabal (+2200). The 34 year old has four wins in Europe and while he is frequently around the Top Tens, it is a little surprising that the last of those victories came back in 2015.
In this type of field and on this course, Larrazabal should be a man to watch this week but there are plenty of options.
Towards the end of the chasing pack and moving to outsider territory is Andy Sullivan (+2200) who is on offer at some interesting prices across the sportsbooks. Sullivan has good form although a disappointing last round 73 saw him drop down the placings in Spain after threatening the lead for much of the first three days. The Englishman is also a previous runner up here, behind Alejandro Canizares in 2014.
Our defending champion Edoardo Molinari (+10000 or 100/1) is having a miserable time of things right now and you have to move down towards the very end of the outright betting to find his odds. The Italian missed the cut in Spain last week and has only featured once in the top 50 across his last five outings.
We mention Molinari because some punters do like to look for the current champion but a better option could be the 2014 winner Alejandro Canizares (+8000) or David Horsey (+6600) who won here in 2011 before recording a second place two years later. Both are shorter prices than Molinari but are long shots, with the game to succeed on this course.
There really could be some betting value this week and it will be no surprise if a long priced winner comes in but can we find him? Callum Shinkwin (+8000) showed form in Spain at the weekend while Oliver Fisher (+12500 or 125/1) lacks consistency but has the capacity to add to his lone victory on Tour back in 2011.
Elsewhere, Nicolas Colsaerts (+8000), Haydn Porteous (+7000) and Marc Warren (+10000) will be among those on punters’ radars over the four days in Morocco
Our Preview’s Trophee Hassan II Predictions, Betting Picks & Course Trends
For the majority of this event’s 47 year history, the Trophee Hassan II has been held at Morocco’s Royal Golf Dar Es Salam course in Rabat. This is an unusual venue in the sense that it is a rare Par 73 with a lengthy 7,615 yards to negotiate.
Fairways are routinely lined by trees but are relatively wide and in previous years, neither Driving Accuracy nor Distance have been particular keys to success. Overall, Greens in Regulation has been an important stat more often than not while form with the putter is an obvious requirement.
While there are some form golfers, this is not an easy call but it is worth noting that Larrazabal has two top fives in this event, albeit on a different course, and he has the game to suit the current venue. The Spaniard is also out at excellent odds, while this Trophee Hassan preview will add some slightly shorter picks in the Top Ten betting that will hopefully lead to a nice overall profit. So these are our betting predictions:
- Bet on Pablo Larrazabal to win at +2500 (25/1) with 5Dimes Sportsbook. He is 22/1 (+2200) with Bovada or Intertops.
- Also back Larrazabal for a Top 5 finish with Bovada @ +500 (5/1).
- Plus for a Top 10 finish, pick George Coetzee (+135), Nicolas Colsaerts (+500) and Oliver Fisher (+1000), all those betting odds are with Bovada.