With the PGA Tour taking a break this week, our golf preview crosses over to its European counterpart where the Turkish Airlines Open gets underway on Thursday. First held in 2013, the event attracts most of Europe’s finest players but there will be a number of names here that are familiar to US bettors.
Justin Rose (+800 or 8/1 with Bovada) has won this event for the last two years and the Englishman is highly fancied to make it a three-peat on Sunday evening.
Defending Champion Rose is just ahead of Patrick Reed (11/1) in the Turkish Open outright betting after becoming the first golfer to win this tournament for two years in succession. It has not been the best of seasons for the English golfer but he is the highest ranked player and he clearly loves this tournament. There is a change of course this year which we will cover in the final section and while that could be an issue, Rose was third at this Montgomerie Maxx venue in 2013.
Reed has been consistent in recent weeks with four straight top 20 finishes, including two top 10s in his last four outings. The 2018 Masters winner may not be at his best but he has enjoyed trips into Europe and cannot be written off.
The chasing golfers are led this week by our most recent Major winner – Open Champion Shane Lowry (16/1). The Irishman hasn’t consistently threatened the leaderboard since that victory in July and finished in a disappointing tie for 43rd at Sheshan on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton is attracting some interest this week along with Matt Wallace who has made some inroads into the PGA Tour this season. Wallace won three tournaments last season but has struggled to put four strong rounds together in 2019.
Francesco Molinari (22/1) is the second highest ranked golfer here but the Italian has yet to respond to that difficult final day at Augusta in April. Bernd Wiesberger (22/1) is the Race to Dubai leader and a genuine contender. The Austrian has won three times on Tour this year and is one to back in the Turkish Open top 10 finish betting markets at the least.
Others to consider in this odds range include newcomers Matthias Schwab and Robert Macintyre plus the consistent Swede Alex Noren.
Another Masters winner is in the field and while Danny Willett’s (28/1) form dropped alarmingly following his surprise win in 2016, the Englishman is heading back to his best. Victory in the BMW PGA in September was the climax of a long battle to return to form and Willett is another live contender.
Eddie Pepperell (33/1) is another man to watch. He claimed two wins in 2018 but a back injury ended his season and he has yet to rediscover his best golf. Pepperell was in contention at the Portugal Masters before eventually settling for a tie for sixth and like Matt Wallace, he just needs to put in four consistent rounds.
Other potential outside options include Joost Luiten, Martin Kaymer, Andrea Pavan and George Coetzee.
Our Preview’s Turkish Open Predictions & Picks Verdict with Course & Betting Trends
For the first three editions of the Turkish Airlines Open, the tournament was held on the Montgomerie Maxx Royal Course in Antalya. The next three years saw a switch to the nearby Regnum Carya Golf Club but for 2019, the event has returned to Montgomerie Maxx.
It is a Par 72 at 7159 yards but it is certainly not a standard one. With five par 5s and five par 3s, the unconventional layout will provide a challenge plus there is a driveable par four 15th along the way. Previous winners have taken advantage of the par 5s, so distance hitting can be a factor.
The 2014 winner Brooks Koepka ranked third for Driving Distance while Par 5 scoring is a vital stat.
Along with Justin Rose, France’s Victor Dubuisson has also won this event on two occasions so there is an early trend for multiple winners. However, we don’t expect Rose to make it a hat-trick.
The change of course is a factor and the betting pick for this Turkish Open preview is Shane Lowry. We would like his form to be better but while there is something of an ‘Open hangover’ about his game, the Irishman hasn’t suffered the same kind of slump that Danny Willett and others have experienced.
The picks with the American offshore odds makers are Lowry for the win plus some top 10 finish betting tips, which will hopefully give a nice overall profit before we return to the PGA Tour. These are the Turkish Open predictions for this preview:
- Shane Lowry to win @ +1600 (16/1) with Bovada, BetOnline or Intertops.
- Top 10 finish picks: Lowry (best odds +150 BetOnline), Bernd Wiesberger (+185 BetOnline), Danny Willett (+300 BetOnline) and Mattias Schwab (+220 Bovada).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.