The fourth major of the season, The US Open 2019 goes off at Pebble Beach on Thursday and, almost without exception, we have the world’s best players assembling ahead of the first tee time.
Among those to watch are World Number one and defending champion Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy. The latter produced a stunning performance to win on Sunday.
Last week at the Canadian Open we enjoyed a profitable four days. Our tip for the win, Matt Kuchar, gave us a run early on before dropping down to fourth. He and the two runners up, Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson, were top 10 finish picks at generous odds. Let’s see if we can keep the run going in Pebble Beach.
Rory’s closing round of 61 in Canada ensured victory by a mighty margin of seven strokes and that performance has put him at or near the head of the US Open outright winner betting market this week. Rory’s sole victory in the US Open came in 2011 but while we have avoided him in our own tipping this year, the Northern Irishman looks to be back to his best. Bovada Sportsbook, whose odds we are using in this US Open preview, have him at +850 (17/2) co-favorite.
That is the same betting odds as Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka. US PGA Champion Koepka clearly likes to raise his game for the big occasion and he looks to offer the best value of the top three.
Brooks is aiming for a third straight US Open victory – a feat not seen since Scotland’s Willie Anderson completed a successive treble in 1905. Koepka’s performance at the treacherous Shinneock Hills last year was seriously impressive and he will get plenty of backers for that three-peat.
Tiger Woods (+1100, aka 11/1) could not have put in two more contrasting performances in this year’s majors. An emotional victory at Augusta was followed by a missed cut at the US PGA and he needs the course to suit him. Tiger sits just behind the favorites in the betting lines with former US Open winners Justin Rose (25/1) and Jordan Spieth (20/1) behind.
None of those three are showing any consistent form but one man who does interest us is Patrick Cantlay (18/1). He is fourth in the Power Rankings for Pebble Beach having finished inside the top 10 in each of the first two majors. Cantlay also leads the Tour in relevant stats and has to be a consideration as a wager with the USA sports betting firms for another top 10 finish at the very least.
Other golfers sitting in the mid-price range include Rickie Fowler (25/1), Jon Rahm (28/1), Xander Schauffele (25/1) and Justin Thomas (28/1). All could be considered Wild Cards following issues with form and fitness but Thomas is, perhaps, the most interesting as he is starting to look sharp following his recent wrist injury.
We have touched on some players where form is absent but there are plenty of outside bets who are looking warm right now. Brandt Snedeker (50/1) enjoyed a productive four days in Canada while our top 10 finish winners – Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson (both also at 50/1) – should also be considered again.
Moving right down the field, England’s Matt Wallace (100/1) enjoyed a spectacular performance at the US PGA while his compatriots Paul Casey (55/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (33/1) will also be hopeful of challenging at the top. Elsewhere, we have Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Marc Leishmann, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Bryson Dechambeau and many others all in the mix. We’d be here for the next week discussing the merits of each genuine contender so let’s move on and see what it will take to win this major, before deciding on our US Open predictions.
Our Preview’s US Open 2019 Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict
The Pebble Beach course in California is home to the US Open for the first time since Graeme McDowell’s win back in 2010. Distance should not be an issue at this short Par 71 which comes in at 6,828 yards.
We saw unusually narrow fairways at this season’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am and with punishing rough and small, slick greens, there is no doubt that accuracy holds the main key to a winning challenge.
We don’t expect a long-odds winner this week and while it’s so hard to ignore Brooks Koepka, we are keeping the faith with Dustin Johson. Like Brooks, he needs to raise his form for a major but he has all of the key stats needed to convert and if he maintains focus, DJ can keep ahead of a strong field this week. So our 2019 US Open predictions are:
- The first of the picks is Dustin Johnson to win @ best betting odds of +850 (17/2) with Bovada.
- For the top 10 finishes we like the following, with top odds in brackets: Dustin Johnson (+100 ie: evens with BetOnline, found in their ‘futures’ section), Patrick Cantlay (+200 BetOnline), Paul Casey (+500 BetOnline) and Jon Rahm (+275 Intertops).