The Majors come thick and fast under golf’s new scheduling and on Thursday we’re off to Torrey Pines for the 2021 edition of the US Open. Like all tournaments of this magnitude, all of the world’s best golfers are in attendance and a dramatic four days are in store.
Last week at the Palmetto Championship, we kept up a good run as Garrick Higgo delivered in the top 10 finish betting market. The young South African won the event and we hope you were on him as he’s going to be a serious talent. Now for our US Open predictions for this preview:
Coming back to this week’s US Open and Spain’s Jon Rahm currently heads the markets at best odds of 10/1. Rahm remains without a win in Majors but he’s claimed victory on this Torrey Pines course back in 2017. He also leads the Tour in Adjusted Scoring which could be a useful stat.
Behind Rahm in second place is Dustin Johnson who can be found at a general 16/1. DJ was our tip for the win at Congaree and he kept us interested until fading in the final stages. It was, nevertheless, a welcome return to form for the man who won the US Open at Oakmont in 2016.
As you would expect, it is tight at the top of the betting market with the feuding duo of Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau both on offer at 18/1 in places. It would certainly be entertaining to see these two in the final pairing on Sunday and between them they’ve shared three of the last four US Open titles.
Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele head up the next bunch this week and both men can be found at best odds of 20/1. Rory’s breakthrough win came in this event back in 2011 and his aggregate of 268 remains a record low for the tournament. Schauffele leads the Tour in all around stats and is another man to enjoy a good record on this Torrey Pines course.
Elsewhere, Jordan Spieth is another golfer with best odds of 20/1 to his name. Spieth made an overdue return to the winners’ enclosure this year but, unlike others, he has made little impact at Torrey Pines thanks largely to its demands for pinpoint accuracy off the tee.
Moving through the chasing pack, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas are both listed at an industry best of 25/1. Both are former Major winners and those could be outstanding odds, for Thomas in particular. JT has patchy form in 2021 but a win in the Players Championship suggests he can raise his game when it really matters.
On the very fringes of this section, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Reed are all listed at 28/1. Notable stats include the fact that Finau has achieved top 10 finishes in each of the last three Majors while Hovland secured a runner-up spot at Torrey Pines earlier this year.
Our first two Major winners of 2021 are Hideki Matsuyama and Phil Mickelson. Both came through at long odds so there’s definitely some potential for value from the outside bunch. The outside punts for the US Open actually start with Matsuyama who is quoted at a best of 40/1. There will be interest in the Japanese player and he does have a good record on this course but that Masters’ success was his only top 10 finish in seven months.
Tyrrell Hatton finished strongly at Congaree last week and he is among a number of golfers who can be found at 50/1. Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen and Daniel Berger are also available at that 50/1 price.
Of that bunch, Casey has been a regular pick for top 10 finish predictions while Zalatoris has also delivered profits as he has that tendency to lift his game for the big events. Both should be considered for single digit finishes at the very least.
Talking of profits, there has been some added interest around Garrick Higgo following his maiden PGA Tour success on Sunday. The South African is available at 70/1 in the outright winner odds and, while it may be too soon in terms of winning a Major, Higgo is another tempter for a top 10 bet.
Other names to consider from the outsiders might include Justin Rose at 60/1, Phil Mickelson at 70/1, Corey Conners at 75/1, Harris English at 80/1, Adam Scott at 80/1 and Gary Woodland at 80/1. There are plenty of Major winners in that list and it is another tough one to call.
Our Preview’s US Open Predictions & Picks Verdict with Course & Betting Trends
Torrey Pines last played host to the US Open back in 2008 when Tiger Woods edged out Rocco Mediate in a playoff. Situated on the coast at La Jolla in California, it’s a par 71 but it is something of a monster at over 7,600 yards.
Distance can be important of course but this is links golf so it must be partnered with pinpoint accuracy. Weather conditions can also be a factor but it is expected to be benign this week with no rain and only light winds. We can also look to those who have performed strongly at the Farmers Insurance Open, which is held here every year.
Justin Thomas may not have enjoyed a stunning record at Torrey Pines but he carries an exceptional price this week. He has been oddly subdued since victory at Sawgrass but he won’t be out of touch for long and he’s ranking well for key stats.
Take Thomas for the win and look to add three more of our suggestions for top 10 finish bets. There have been two long-odds Major winners so far but we suspect that 2021’s US Open champion will come in at a shorter price. These are the predictions and picks:
- Justin Thomas to win @ +2200 with Bovada, Bookmaker and BetOnline.
- Top 10 Finish Selections (best odds in brackets): JT (+225 BetOnline), Will Zalatoris (+350 BetOnline), Garrick Higgo (+550 BetOnline) and Viktor Hovland (+275 Intertops).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.