The Valspar Championship has been on the PGA circuit since 2000. It is another event that returns to the schedule following a break in 2020 and it’s a strong field for this year’s edition. Paul Casey is the defending champion and is looking for a third win in succession but the Englishman has some stiff competition in 2021.
There are some big names in contention as we head up to Florida and the outright betting is led by Justin Thomas. The recent winner of the Players Championship is quoted at an industry best odds of 9/1. JT doesn’t have a great record in this tournament with a best finish of tenth in three starts but he has the quality to convert.
Dustin Johnson is just behind at 10/1 in most places but he can be found at a top price of 11/1 elsewhere. Johnson remains at the top of the world rankings thanks to his run of wins at the end of 2020 but recent form is more of a concern. Both of the favorites are fairly priced but Thomas and Johnson will need to lift their games if they are to win this week.
The chasers are led by four golfers who can all be found at 20/1 in places. Patrick Reed, Corey Conners, Paul Casey and Viktor Hovland are available at that mark and there will be interest in each of them. Conners is in the best form of anyone, as evidenced by the fact that he heads up the Power Rankings. The Canadian has good, relevant stats and led the Valspar Championship for the first three rounds in 2018 before fading badly on the final day.
Casey is aiming to win the same tournament in three consecutive years for the first time since Steve Stricker in 2011. He has been described as ‘steady’ and that is a perfect term for a player who has given us plenty of returns in the top 10 finish markets.
Patrick Reed interests us and he was a runner up to Casey back in 2018. It is, however, a competitive chasing pack with a number of additional names to consider. Tyrrell Hatton at 28/1, Louis Oosthuizen at 33/1 and Scottie Scheffler at 33/1 could all come into contention.
It’s not the strongest overall field of the season but there are some interesting names among the outside bunch. Following his return to form at the Masters, Justin Rose will receive some attention at his best odds of 40/1. The Englishman appears to be over his injury concerns and has a good record on this Copperhead Course.
Charley Hoffman is also on offer at 40/1 and he’s another golfer to return some profitable top 10 finishes in recent years. Other players to consider in this final section might include Ryan Palmer at 50/1, Talor Gooch at 80/1, Gary Woodland at 80/1, Adam Hadwin at 100/1 and Sam Burns at 100/1. Some promising golfers are in that bunch and a peak in form might just see a long odds winner this week.
Valspar Championship Preview’s Course & Betting Trends with Picks & Predictions Verdict
This tournament first appeared on the calendar as the Tampa Bay Classic in 2000 and it has been through a number of sponsor-led name changes ever since. The one constant has been the venue with the Valspar Championship set to return to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida.
It’s a par 71 with reasonable length at over 7,300 yards so there can be some reward for power off the tee. Accuracy tee to green is a dominant stat, however, and Paul Casey has proved this in each of his two wins. Back in 2019, Casey led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and in total driving.
Putting, curiously, wasn’t a strong discipline for Casey but we will certainly need to find someone in good touch with the flatstick.
No American has won the Valspar since Jordan Spieth in 2015 but that’s one trend that we think will change. Patrick Reed just lacks consistency at the moment but, if he’s at his best, he has the stats that can gain a clear edge on the field. He has been a runner up in this event on two previous occasions and that tells us that he has the game to master this Copperhead Course.
Patrick Reed for the win is our main pick with the addition of three top 10 finish picks which should carry interest all the way through to Sunday. So these are the Valspar Championship predictions for this golf preview:
- Patrick Reed to win @ best betting odds of +2000 (20/1) with BetOnline or Bookmaker.
- Top 10 Finish Picks: Reed (best at +200 with Bovada, BetOnline), Paul Casey (+275 BetOnline), Scottie Scheffler (+300 Bovada) and Charley Hoffman (+550 BetOnline).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.