Wells Fargo Championship 2021 Golf Preview, Betting Predictions, Picks: Not Homa But Simpson

Webb SimpsonThis week the tour is off to Wilmington in North Carolina for the 2021 edition of the Wells Fargo Championship. It is just two weeks until golf’s second major of the year and the fields are starting to intensify ahead of the PGA Championship, which is run later this month.

The Wells Fargo was first established in 2003 and is another to return to the schedules following an enforced break last year. The 2019 edition saw Max Homa claim his first PGA Tour title with a three-shot win over Joel Dahmen. Homa is back to defend but he faces stiff competition this time around. This preview from USA Betting now goes into more detail with our 2021 Wells Fargo Championship predictions and ending with betting picks.

Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are among the field this week and both will undoubtedly attract interest in the markets. They will start as joint favorites in the outright betting and are locked at 11/1 with most top class, American-serving sportsbooks.

Rahm also leads the power rankings with consistent form this season but he is making his Wells Fargo debut. Thomas doesn’t have an outstanding record at this event but he did win on this course when it hosted the PGA Championship in 2017.

Just behind is Bryson DeChambeau who is also at 11/1 in places but can be picked up elsewhere at a best of 14/1. Consistency is an issue but The Scientist may well enjoy the length and expanse of this Quail Hollow Course.

Heading up these bookies’ favorites is the most successful golfer in the history of this tournament. Rory McIlroy is a double Wells Fargo champion and also finished as a runner up after losing out in a playoff to Rickie Fowler in 2012. Form is an obvious concern but this venue could offer Rory the perfect chance to rediscover his touch.

McIlroy is listed at 20/1 while Webb Simpson and Viktor Hovland are slightly further back at 22/1. Simpson was a runner up here to Rory McIlroy in 2015 but that was one of only two top 10 finishes on this course. Hovland has the form after his tie for third on Sunday.

Moving through the field, Patrick Reed and Tony Finau are both quoted at 28/1 while Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris and Corey Conners are all at 30/1. Finau should have the distance to make his mark over four days but Zalatoris may have the better combination of power and accuracy.

The defending Wells Fargo champion Max Homa kicks off the list of outsiders at an industry best of 35/1. Homa followed up his 2019 victory with a second Tour win at the Genesis Invitational earlier this year. A tie for sixth at the weekend puts him in good form and those odds could represent some decent value.

Further back, Abraham Ancer, Jason Day, Brian Harman, Cameron Tringale and Sungjae Im are all on offer at 40/1 in places. Other prices that stand out in this section include the 66/1 next to the names of Keegan Bradley and Russell Henley. Bubba Watson is at 70/1 and the 2012 Wells Fargo champion Rickie Fowler is at 75/1.

Bradley is a form player following his solo second at Copperhead and, while his record in this tournament is weak, he can maintain that momentum and threaten the top 10 once again.

Wells Fargo Championship Golf Preview Conclusion with Course Trends & Betting Tips

The tournament first began as the Wachovia Championship in 2003 and it became the Quail Hollow Championship six years later. New sponsors came on board in 2011 and the Wells Fargo Championship was born.

The Quail Hollow Club has hosted every edition to date bar one with Eagle Point taking hosting duties in 2017. The regular venue is a long par 71 which comes in right on 7,600 yards. Quail Hollow is known for its tough opening three holes and a punishing last three which are collectively known as the Green Mile. All six holes have consistently ranked among the hardest on the entire USPGA Tour.

In winning this event two years ago, defending champion Max Homa ranked strongly in a number of stats including Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation, Proximity to the Hole, Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting.

In a relatively short history, only one player has ever won this tournament twice. Rory McIlory claimed his first Wells Fargo success in 2010 and he followed that up with a record breaking double five years later. McIlroy’s final total of 267 was the lowest aggregate, the lowest score to par and his seven-shot victory provided the biggest margin to date.

We think that particular trend will continue as we get behind a first-time winner for the 2021 edition. Webb Simpson has that inconsistency on this course but he has continued his solid form after leading last season’s FedEx Cup for some time. Simpson has the stats in his locker and just needs a lift on his most recent performances to deliver a profit. Add in some promising top 10 finish picks and we aim to get back to winning ways in Wilmington. These are the predictions for this Wells Fargo preview:

  • Webb Simpson to win @ top betting odds of +2200 (22/1) with Bovada or Intertops. He is 20/1 with Bookmaker and BetOnline.
  • Expect top 10 finishes from these players (with odds from BetOnline for each golfer in brackets): Simpson (+200), Will Zalatoris (+250), Max Homa (+400) and Keegan Bradley (+650).