The rescheduling of this season’s Majors means that we have a busier period than usual this month. The PGA Championship is brought forward to May and the world’s top golfers will continue to warm up this week at the Wells Fargo Championship.
The event always tends to draw a strong field but with the PGA tournament just two weeks away, picking a winner is going to be even tougher than usual. Last week was a profitable one for us as we landed the pairing of Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer to bank at generous odds of +1800 (18/1). So let’s see if we can keep the run going and punish those top American oddssetters once again with our Wells Fargo Championship predictions.
Rory McIlroy (+600, aka 6/1 with Bovada offshore sportsbook) is a two-time winner of this event and he leads the outright betting markets for this 2019 renewal by a considerable margin. The last of his two victories came in 2015. Since then his form has been patchy but we can also add a runners up slot in 2012 to an impressive record in this event.
Not surprisingly, Rory heads the Power Rankings this week and he also leads on Tour with Strokes gained – both off the tee and tee to green.
There is a gap to the rest of the field, led by the defending champion Jason Day (+1000). The Australian won here in 2018 by two strokes following a respectable tie for ninth when the PGA Championship was held on this course a year earlier.
The Wells Fargo odds become much tighter at this point with Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose locked at the same +1100 (11/1) price. Rose has the form but not a great record at the Wells Fargo while Fowler enjoyed his breakthrough win here way back in 2012.
Then there is Hideki Matsuyama (18/1) who hasn’t missed a cut in nine months and has always made the weekend in five visits to this tournament. Hideki has good, relevant stats coming into Thursday and he can’t be written off.
Also worthy of mention in this section are Webb Simpson (20/1) and Tony Finau (22/1). Simpson is a consistent figure on Tour and was runner-up to McIlroy in 2015 while Finau is still searching for the form that made him a weekly contender at the end of last year.
It’s a talented set of outsiders in the Wells Fargo betting lines this week led by Phil Mickelson and Paul Casey (both 25/1). This is one tournament to have deserted Lefty Phil so far but he has eight top fives at the Wells Fargo including a runners up slot in 2010.
Casey is usually a regular pick for us in the top 10 finish markets but his form has dipped a little since that successful defence of the Valspar Championship last month. Elsewhere, Sergio Garcia (+2000) and Gary Woodland (28/1) would make some appeal. Of the two, Sergio has a runners up slot in this event but you have to go all the way back to 2005 to find it.
Moving through the list there are golfers with real quality at big odds. Patrick Reed (35/1), Henrik Stenson (33/1) and Zach Johnson (80/1) are all in the mix while 2014 Champion JB Holmes (80/1) tees up this week after a good run of form this season.
Our Preview’s Wells Fargo Championship Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict
The Wells Fargo Championship has been on the calendar since it made its debut as the Wachovia Championship in 2003. The main constant has been the venue: the Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, has held the event for all but one of its 16 years.
Multiple winners are rare with only Rory McIlroy claiming the tournament twice since its inception in 2003.
The course is a par 71 but it is a long one at 7600 yards and it features the notorious Green Mile – the tough finish at 16, 17 and 18. As such, this is a test of stamina as much as anything else but key stats across the four days will include distance hitting, putting, scrambling and strokes gained. To summarize, it should come down to a combination of power off the tee and a competent short game.
This may be a week to stick to top 10 finish markets as we could easily see a rank outsider coming through. If pushed to name a winner, Tony Finau fits the profile listed above and if he can somehow find the touch that has deserted him since the start of the year, he can convert at a respectable mid-range price. So our Wells Fargo predictions and golf betting picks for this week are:
- Bet on Tony Finau to win at +2200 (22/1 for lovers of fractional odds format) with Bovada. That is significantly the best odds available with the U.S. sportsbooks, the next biggest is the 20/1 with Intertops.
- Take Finau (best at +225 Intertops), Webb Simpson (+200 Bovada), Phil Mickelson (+250 Intertops) and Byeong-Hun An (+550 Bovada) for top 10 finishes.
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.