The first World Golf Championship of the year heads into view this week and we’re off down Mexico way to the Club de Golf Chapultepec. A recent addition to the Tour in 1999, the WGC Mexico was dominated for a period by Tiger Woods who has claimed seven titles while Dustin Johnson is the most successful golfer in recent times with three wins.
Johnson is also the defending champion and, as you can already tell, this tournament attracts a strong field with the majority of the world’s best teeing up. With that in mind, let’s head straight on and see if we can pick out some winning bets.
One point separates the market leaders at Bovada USA Sportsbook for the WGC Mexico 2020 with Rory McIlroy (+650) just beating Dustin Johnson (+750) to the favorite’s berth. Rory was the sole runner up to DJ last year by an admittedly distant five strokes but that result kick-started a fine year for the Northern Irishman.
McIlroy tied for fifth at the Genesis Invitational on Sunday and an interesting stat confirmed that he started in the final group for the 12th time since the start of 2018. That’s five more than any other golfer on Tour and it underlines his consistent form right now.
Talking of consistency, Dustin Johnson has won three of the five WGC Mexico editions since 2015. A runner-up slot in 2011 adds to his potency in Mexico but the one concern is the lack of a win since that machine-like performance one year ago.
The gap behind the two favorites ends with Jon Rahm (10/1) and Justin Thomas (11/1) who are hard to split with most US legal sports bookies. Thomas lost out in a playoff to Phil Mickelson two years ago but a missed cut last week is a concern for potential backers.
Rahm has a decent record in this tournament but form with the putter let him down on the way to a 17th place at the weekend.
Moving through the chasers, Webb Simpson (18/1) follows while Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott are all locked at around +2000. Scott is the most recent winner on Tour and is a former champion here with a win in 2016, so he’s clearly a live contender.
At similar win WGC Mexico betting odds are Tommy Fleetwood, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa. Of those three, Matsuyama secured a tie for fifth at the Genesis Invitational while leading the field in stats that could be very relevant this week.
Matt Kuchar (40/1) heads the list of longshots and the veteran must be a consideration for a top 10 finish. Kuch displayed much of the form shown in the first half of 2019 as he eventually tied for second on Sunday.
Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Gary Woodland follow and all could offer a threat this week. There are a lot of players on longer prices who may lack consistency but can come through to deliver if it’s their week. Marc Leishman, Bubba Watson, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Open Champion Shane Lowry could all fit into that category. So what does it will take to win in Mexico at the weekend and what are our WGC Mexico predictions?
Our Preview’s WGC Mexico Course & Betting Trends with Predictions & Picks Verdict
The WGC Mexico returns to the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan on Mexico’s mid-west border. It has hosted this golf tournament since 2017 and players should therefore be getting used to the challenges posed by its par 71 that comes in at a shade above 7,350 yards. It is at altitude so the ball tends to fly and the power hitters have little advantage. It also takes some adjustment by all players off the tee.
Rough can be punishing but in the previous editions on this course, the greens have posed the toughest challenge. Measuring 12 on the stimp, it could all come down to a battle with the flatstick.
This preview has mentioned that multiple winners are common. There have been 20 editions of the WGC Mexico in all its forms and 14 of those tournaments have been won by just four golfers: Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson.
There is no cut this week so at least Justin Thomas will remain in contention for the whole four rounds. JT was our long-term pick and his slump at Riviera last week may have made us think twice but, as we say, you should never change your mind.
It has been four years since there was a first time winner of this tournament but Thomas has the relevant stats even if form isn’t quite there. Add in these top 10 finish picks and this preview is aiming for a nice overall profit as we cross the border on Thursday. These are the WGC Mexico predictions for this week’s big golf tournament:
- Take Justin Thomas to win @ best betting odds of +1100 (11/1) with Bovada.
- Top 10 finish selections: Thomas (best odds -110 BetOnline), Matt Kuchar (+325 BetOnline), Gary Woodland (+350 BetOnline, Intertops) and Marc Leishman (+400 Intertops, BetOnline).
Matt Harris is a golf and soccer expert for USA Betting. His other area of specialist knowledge is cricket. He is well known in sports journalism and contributes articles to a plethora of big-name websites and media outlets. Titles that he writes or has written for include: Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & Just Bookies.