As we start to build towards the Masters, all of the top tournaments are on the PGA Tour right now and this week sees the first World Golf Championship of 2018.
The WGC Mexico was first held in 1999 and was dominated in its early years by Tiger Woods but for this year, it’s two-time victor Dustin Johnson who is looking to extend his own winning streak.
Dustin Johnson (+600 with Bovada) predictably heads the betting market with the big USA sportbooks but he’s not clear of the pack by a huge distance and interestingly, the World Number One isn’t at the top of the Power Rankings for WGC Mexico. He has taken a break but having won twice in three years it may be hard to see past him and DJ ranks highest in adjusted scoring this season so that may prove crucial.
Behind the favorite by a fraction is Justin Thomas (+800) who made a welcome return to form last week at the PGA National. Winning the Honda Classic and topping the Power Rankings is a good indicator and Thomas also finished strongly here last year in a tie for fifth.
Behind the Top Two, Jon Rahm (+1200) also returns from a spell but the stats are all over the place for the Spaniard. He tied third here on his debut in 2018 and led the field in scrambling but has been out of the Top Ten in his last three starts.
Behind Rahm is Jordan Spieth (+1200) and while it’s interesting to see his drift in price, it’s hard to disagree with those numbers when they are based on form. Without a win of any kind since taking the Open Championship in July, Spieth has just four top 20s in his last five outings and looks out of touch.
The mid-range odds start to get really interesting from this point with Tommy Fleetwood (+1600), Rickie Fowler (+1800) and Justin Rose (+2000) all tightly bunched in the outright betting. From those three, the man in form is Fleetwood, runner up in Mexico last year, who has started well Stateside in 2018 and picked up a solo fourth at the PGA National on Sunday.
Fowler was off the pace last week while Rose has been resting but all three could make a genuine challenge in Mexico.
At the head of the outside punts are Alex Noren (+2500) and Phil Mickelson (+1800) who are both showing well and feature highly in the Power Rankings. Phil is also a former winner here and while you have to go back to 2009 to find that victory, his last three outings are better indicators with ties for fifth, second and sixth.
Noren has also impressed since committing to the PGA Tour and either man could be lifting the trophy on Sunday. Other strong options at a similar price could include Paul Casey (+3300) and Bubba Watson (+3500). Casey is a regular in the Top Tens while Watson is a recent winner and has been runner up at the WGC Mexico on no fewer than three occasions since 2012.
Moving to more distant punts, Webb Simpson (+5000) showed well last week while Gary Woodland (+5500) and Chez Reavie (+5500) have also enjoyed productive starts to 2018. Outside of the US, Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6000), Ross Fisher (+50000) and Tyrrell Hatton (+4500) are here and if any can reproduce their form from the European Tour, they could be a threat this week.
Our Betting Preview’s WGC Mexico Predictions, Picks & Course Trends
Narrow, tree-lined fairways are the main feature of the Chapultepec course in Naucalpan so driving accuracy is going to be a crucial stat, along with adjusted scoring this week. As a par 71, it is relatively long at over 7,300 yards but distance shouldn’t be an issue over four days.
Tiger Woods won on no fewer than seven occasions since 1999 but Ernie Els and Dustin Johnson have also claimed the trophy twice so we certainly shouldn’t rule out previous winners when looking for our WGC Mexico predictions.
Reading through the market, Woods and Rory McIlroy are really the only big name golfers to be absent this week so it really is a tough call. The numbers might be against this tip but Jon Rahm is ready to return to form and while those recent results show three finishes outside the Top Ten, he claimed the DP World Tour Championships after a similar run.
Behind Rahm there is so much quality that you could make a case for Mickelson, Fleetwood, Casey, Woodland and many more for a win and show or Top Ten punt but we’ll trim that list to complete our suggestions for the WGC Mexico 2018.
These are the WGC Mexico betting predictions for this preview: